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China might be headed toward a recession. Against all expectation (not a single economist polled by Bloomberg had predicted it), the People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates. The ease was only by 10 basis points, to the bank’s one-year lending rate, but it was still in the exact opposite direction to the monetary route being […]
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CYA Time

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In foreign policy
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On August 17, 2021
Scott’s post about the so-called “Afghanistan Papers” provides a good excuse to remind everyone that the recriminations, deflections, and finger-pointing are just getting started. It’s important to keep that mind when evaluating reporting based on leaked documents or confidential sources. These are part of a larger struggle – among agencies, officials, politicians, and contractors – […]
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I have a brand new piece online at Foreign Affairs on why I’m extremely skeptical of the idea of “Great-Power Competition” as a strategic framework. Great powers compete. The relative decline of the United States means that other great powers – notably rising ones, such as China – can compete more effectively than they could […]
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