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Will the Trump verdict matter?

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I should say that my inclination is to agree with Erik that Trump being found guilty on all counts will probably not materially affect the 2024 presidential election. It definitely will not have any effect on Trump’s base, obviously. The question is whether it will have any impact on the small but critical number of low-information incoherent swing voters. I have no idea, but I don’t think that Josh Chafetz’s case is entirely unreasonable, so I thought I’d throw it out there for discussion:

“LOL nothing matters” has a lot of explanatory power in American politics circa 2024, but there’s no downside in trying to make something of it.

And of course:

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