NFL Open Thread: Divisional Round Sunday

Before we get to today’s games:

• I think it could be reasonably argued that the Seahawks deciding to replace Pete Carroll with Mike Macdonald, give full personnel control to John Schneider, and get a third round draft pick to replace Geno Smith with Sam Darnold while gaining cap space have worked out as a net positive for the organization.
• I was cheering for the Bills, and the Nix injury makes me extra disappointed that we won’t see more of Josh Allen (although I’ll get over it quickly if the Seahawks win next week.) And I do agree with Doug Farrar that while the final pass interference call against the Bills was correct, it made the missed DPI at the end of the fourth quarter more egregious:

Spot the difference:

One of these was called pass interference and the other wasn't…

Bills vs Broncos pic.twitter.com/XHtwB1xhLF— Rate the Refs (@Rate_the_Refs) January 18, 2026

Having said that, as is often the case with individual missed calls I don’t think the officiating is the story here. I think the call on the overtime interception was right, but the key point is that it’s a ball that needs to be caught and held, and it underscores the risks you take when you willingly go into the playoffs with a 32-year-old Brandin Cooks as one of your top 2 receivers. It’s also pretty hard to make the refs the story when you net -4 turnovers, but in particular I would point to Joe Brady calling a no-upside QB run play at the end of the first half, and Allen fumbling while trying to extend a play that had no material chance of leading to any points. Without the field goal that gifted to the Broncos, none of the DPI calls or non-calls are relevant. They got a bad break for sure, but that’s what can happen when you let a eminently beatable opponent hang around because of unforced errors.

TEXANS AT PATRIOTS (-3.5) This is my favorite line of the weekend. The historic softness of the Patriots schedule has become so well-known that there’s the risk of underrating them, and you always feel you have a good chance in the playoff when you have the better QB, which the Pats do. But I think the Texas at least as good as probably better overall, and with the quality of their defense to get more that a field goal to take them in what’s likely to be a cold weather rock fight? Yes, please. Also, if you’re a Denver fan I would be cheering hard for New England — good night and good luck if Jarrett Stidham has to face the Texans.

RAMS AT BEARS (+3.5) I’ve been slow to come around on the Bears, but I’m becoming at least a half-believer, and I can see two big reasons why people might like to take the points here. First, the Rams are a warm-weather team that will be playing in frigid conditions. And second, the most viable path to beating LA is to get some explosive plays against their iffy secondary, which Williams and Johnson can certainly do. And yet, I would still pick the Rams — the Bears defense sucks, and I don’t see the Rams suddenly going dormant for most of a half like the Packers did even in the bad weather. I would like to see Chicago pull of the upset but I think they’re a year away.