What Is to Be Done with Greenland?

Dave Weigel is getting a lot of flak for asking this question on Bluesky, but I think it’s pretty important:

With respect to the “run on,” I think the answer is that Greenland is extremely unlikely to be a big deal in the 2028 election and thus that any decisions about its permanent status can be deferred… for a bit. But starting with the premise that it is unlikely but not impossible that the Trump administration will manage to acquire Greenland in some fashion before January 2029… a Democratic President and Congress are going to have to decide what to do with it. Some issues:

1. It is unlikely that Denmark will want Greenland back. Greenland is a drag on Denmark’s economy (albeit a small one) but I doubt Copenhagen will want to paint a target on its own back for the next Trumpist President.
2. It is possible that Greenland will want full independence (neo-imperial nonsense like this can drive independence sentiment) but Greenland can’t really afford independence; it’s financially dependent on Denmark and would struggle without extensive outside financial support.
3. Greenland would be the world’s 12th largest country by size and the 187th largest by population, which is not a great combination for questions of state capacity.
4. It is very possible that Greenlanders will prefer some kind of formal association with the United States rather than independence, and even if they do want independence that will have to come with assurances of military and financial support.
5. Statehood is off the table for the foreseeable future, both because Greenland’s population is too small (literally under the Constitutional cutoff of 60000), and because it would likely be impossible to generate Congressional support for making Greenland a state.

So… in the unlikely and deeply unfortunate eventuality that the Stupid happens and Trump manages to acquire Greenland, the next Democratic President does actually have some thinking to do about Greenland. My preference would be for the preferences of Greenlanders to drive this process, and my wager is that we’re likely to settle on an arrangement similar to that of American Samoa. That would mean de jure US sovereignty combined with de facto local governance. Questions about birthright citizenship would have to be worked out in the process (evidently many Samoans hate birthright citizenship for a variety of political and cultural reasons).