The Trump manufacturing bust
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A lot of discourse about Trump’s tariffs was about whether the obvious downsides were worth trying to restore manufacturing jobs in the US. The answer is that Trump’s tariffs are also bad for manufacturing as it actually works in 2026:
The manufacturing boom President Trump promised would usher in a golden age for America is going in reverse. After years of economic interventions by the Trump and Biden administrations, fewer Americans work in manufacturing than any point since the pandemic ended.
Manufacturers shed workers in each of the eight months after Trump unveiled “Liberation Day” tariffs, according to federal figures, extending a contraction that has seen more than 200,000 roles disappear since 2023.
An index of factory activity tracked by the Institute for Supply Management shrunk in 26 straight months through December, but showed a January uptick in new orders and production that surprised analysts. The Census Bureau estimates that manufacturing construction spending, which surged with Biden-era funding for chips and renewable energy, fell in each of Trump’s first nine months in office.
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The White House’s stop-and-start policymaking—Trump threatened new tariffs on Europe, Canada and South Korea in recent weeks—has also led to what many executives view as a lost year for investment. The possibility the Supreme Court could nullify some import taxes has added to the uncertainty.
At the same time, China and others have continued pumping out exports despite tariffs, pushing down prices in global markets where U.S. manufacturers are struggling to compete.
“There’s very little in our product portfolio that has benefited from tariffs,” said H.O. Woltz III, chief executive of North Carolina-based Insteel Industries.
Deposing an administration that actually led to a revival in manufacturing jobs to replace it with McKinleynomics — there are real limits to vibes-based voting.