Tester is Toast
By 
I have nothing but respect for Jon Tester, but he is finished:
New @CookPolitical: Sen. Jon Tester (D) moves from Toss Up to Lean R. Full #MTSen analysis by @JessicaTaylor: https://t.co/XCUUA28jNZ
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 12, 2024
You have to subscribe for the real analysis, but the answer is Montana.
We are going to need keep investing in Montana, yes, there is a chance and Tester is a savvy man who knows his state. But if we want to have any chance to hold the Senate, we are going to need to win either this, Nebraska, Texas, or Florida and both Nebraska and Texas are both at least as likely as Montana. We also, in the longer term, need to do a lot more than focus on the seven swing states, or whatever the number happens to be in a given election. Outside of North Carolina, the two most likely states to vote for Democrats at the presidential level are Florida and Texas. We have to invest in these states for the downballot as much as anything. If Harris wins the presidency but Republicans control the Senate, we are going to get nothing.