Has the Fake Meat Boom Ended Already?

One of the only ways out of the climate crisis is to stop eating red meat, which is tremendously damaging to the environment in any number of ways. Cows produce enormous amounts of methane, they use up tons of land, they require a lot of water, it’s a big problem. Of course as a red-blooded True American, I like cow as much as anyone else. But I also see the real environmental problems. As many have noted, the quality of vegetarian meat substitutes has vastly improved in the last 25 years, from terrible to actually pretty good. I had the Impossible Whopper a couple of times while on the road, in a hurry, and not wanting to feel disgusting after fast food, and it was just as a good as the regular Whopper. Granted, that’s a low bar because Burger King is bad, but that’s also the fundamental point–if we are going to eat bad food, why do we have to kill an animal and destroy the planet to do it?

But this continued progress seems to have stalled out already? And that’s not great.

The plant-based meat industry has stumbled. When Beyond Meat released its plant-based “steak tips” last week, it did so still reeling from a $97 million net loss in the second quarter; staff layoffs are planned before the end of the year. That’s consistent with a Deloitte study released late September that found that, industry-wide, sales of “alternative proteins” had stalled and begun to backslide in 2021 and 2022. Even while a leveling off was predictable after a year of explosive growth, the report ventures a more ominous conclusion: The demand for alternative proteins may have already hit a ceiling in the United States.

Normally, this would be little more than bad news for investors. But this particular industry is also widely viewed as a lever to curb climate change and other ecological calamities. The scientific consensus suggests our current and projected levels of global meat production are not just unsustainable but apocalyptic. Along with being a significant methane and carbon dioxide emitter, the modern meat supply chain is at the center of a cluster of global risks, increasing the likelihood of zoonotic pandemics, driving deforestation that destroys our last remaining carbon sinks, and weakening the power of our antibiotics. Secondary perhaps only to oil infrastructure in its shocking toll on the global environment, the huge and growing industrial meat system has to be stopped in its tracks and rolled back—fast.

We need to stop thinking alternative proteins can stall the meat machine. In recent years, mainstream commentators, think tanks, legacy media, and consulting firms have narrated the development of alt-proteins as a similar story to the early days of renewable energy—as if simply funding research and investment in renewables will trigger a market revolution that does all the hard work for us. Energy activists these days have no trouble understanding that boosting renewables alone won’t cut it: Unless oil and gas production and expansion are stopped, fossil fuel consumption will continue. When will the meat conversation advance to this enlightened stage? We can expect the establishment to tell us that the path to salvation is paved by consumption. But this narrative hasn’t received significant pushback, whether from activists or from academics concerned with the environment, food, or animal welfare, many of whom have joined in cheering on the new business.

Now, I actually disagree with much of the article from here on out. You simply aren’t going to win an argument that people shouldn’t eat things that taste like meat. It’s not a winnable argument at all. What’s frustrating to me is that, unlike many climate problems, this one actually has something that moves us toward a solution–the fake meat industry. That’s as good as it is going to get AND it is quite achievable. That’s not to say there’s not problems there too, problems that would grow as the industry grows. It’s capitalism after all. But living in the real world of real people, yeah, good luck going to Mexico or China or Thailand and tell people they should not eat meat now that they have enough money to afford it, not to mention Bubba in the buffet line in Alabama.

So I am all in on some fake meat. But if no one buys it, even though it is tasty and works just fine in most cases, then I just don’t see where we go from here. If we can’t even make choices when the products are right in front of us, then……And I admit it takes time–a lot of people look on this stuff as sketchy. This is why the Burger King deal (of all damn places) is so key–you can just taste it for cheap and see what you think.

Anyway, this post is starting to ramble and is reflecting my general frustration rather than making much of a point that will improve by more words. But again, if not this, then what? Because this is actually a real step and we are rejecting even that step.