Will there be another mini recession in marginal states in 2020?
By 
Of the many factors that led to President Donald J. Trump, the localized recessions in critical rust belt states in 2016 is likely one of the more important. Since Trump is now an unpopular incumbent, this is therefore important:
The American economy has found its footing after a summer recession scare. But much of the Midwest is still stumbling.
President Trump campaigned in 2016 on a pledge to restore jobs — manufacturing jobs, specifically — to long-struggling Midwestern communities, and he has made the economy a centerpiece of his re-election campaign.
But job growth has slowed sharply this year in Michigan, Pennsylvania and other states that were critical to Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, as well as in states like Minnesota that he narrowly lost. Hiring in the region has remained sluggish even as it has picked up this fall in much of the rest of the country. Other economic measures show similar weakness.
It’s hard to see a path for Trump without him getting a substantial Electoral College boost again. It’s very possible that he will, but it’s also entirely possible that he won’t get one of the same magnitude.