Movement?

Very hard to say anything conclusive about cease-fire negotiations but it does seem that the Iranians are both acknowledging that progress has been made and that they are actively considering a specific deal:

President Trump on Thursday insisted the U.S. was nearing a deal on peace talks with Iran, pulling back from his threats just hours earlier to launch more military strikes and seize Iran’s oil infrastructure.

Trump said Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had signed off on the plan, which he said would be completed in coming days, paving the way for additional talks on Iran’s nuclear program.

Tehran said it hadn’t decided.

“Iran hasn’t reached a final conclusion about the agreement,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said, according to state media. “We will announce it when we reach a conclusion.”

This is, to say the least, pretty favorable to Iranian interests. There will of course be the claims of triumph but I cannot imagine that it will please the hawkish wing of the Republican Party, and Trump has been sensitive to their criticism. Depending on how the nuclear talks are going there are ways in which Trump and his allies can assert that this was “better than Obama,” which should be understood as a permission structure for the administration to go through with the deal.

And of course the Israelis can blow it all up just anytime they want. Some thoughts at National Security Journal:

Despite all the confusion, a report from the New York Times indicated that the United States and Iran have made progress on four key nuclear issues, including a timeframe for suspension of enrichment, a dilution of existing stocks, the closure of two production sites, and a schedule for inspections.

While there’s plenty of distance between the parties, all of these issues seem tractable. Relaxation of the dual blockade is similarly a manageable diplomatic issue. This suggests that with patience and hard work, an accord to end the war between Iran and the United States is possible… although Israel remains a potential spoiler if its security interests aren’t addressed. Negotiations at this point seem unlikely even to touch upon Iran’s missile and drone industries, or its militia allies across the region. This is to say that even if Tehran and Washington reach a peace deal, Jerusalem might still be inclined to blow things up, an eventuality that President Trump seems not to have yet addressed.

Last point… We want this war to end. It’s going to be incredibly easy to drift into a right-wing critique of this deal, assuming the details are correct. My advice for people whose voices matter… right now simply acknowledge that a durable ceasefire is an important achievement, and give it just a couple weeks before pointing out how badly the war harmed US interests and how insufficient the deal is based on stated US objectives.