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In Case You Were Starting To Feel Like We Finally Licked that BP Oil Spill…

[ 0 ] September 2, 2010 |

This just in.


What Would We Be Without Wishful Thinking?

[ 11 ] September 2, 2010 |

8% of the American public believes that the late Thurgood Marshall is the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. (What percentage of Americans think Earl Warren was a sleazy male stripper remains unspecified.) Perhaps more importantly, fewer than 30% of the public got the question right.

With all due respect to Justice Ginsburg, it’s this kind of data that makes clear that the idea that, for example, Roe would have found greater public acceptance if the Court had waited to decide it on equal protection grounds is absurd. An electorate that for the most part doesn’t even know who sits on the Supreme Court isn’t going to base its evaluation of judicial opinions on careful evaluations of judicial craftsmanship, and Roe is actually an excellent illustration of this.

Bolton for POTUS?

[ 31 ] September 2, 2010 |

Maybe. Mark Leon Goldberg has a few thoughts.

What Exactly is the US Doing to Protect its Afghan Partners?

[ 12 ] September 1, 2010 |

It’s a fair question.

I spent the last ten days seeking answers from the Department of Defense.

Major Christopher Perrine, who specializes in strategic communication for the US military, was eager enough to reiterate DOD’s position about the Wikileaks documents over the phone – that Wikileaks never contacted DOD “directly,” didn’t keep its phone appointments, and that at any rate DOD would not be negotiating with individuals who specialize in leaking classified documents.

But most of my questions were about the US’ broader efforts to protect civilian informants against retaliation – efforts that, I would have liked to assume, surely pre-dated the Wikileaks affair. On this, Perrine referred me to the Pentagon Spokeswoman on Afghanistan Elizabeth Robbins, and warned me that she might refer me to someone with ISAF – only they, he said, would know precisely what was going on on the ground.

Not so unexpectedly, Major Robbins never got back to me.

I did get a more thoughtful response from the brand new DOD Office for the Rule of Law and International Humanitarian Policy, headed by Rosa Brooks. As Spencer Ackerman reported last May, the new entity’s mandate is to “entrench respect for the rule of law and human rights as a core focus within the Defense Department.”

While I have generally interpreted this as an example of the Obama Administration’s commitment to mainstream human security concerns into our defense apparatus, what it means in practice remains unclear. As I was told by an earnest but apologetic aide in an interim response by email, the office is still getting up and running in terms of personnel, budgeting and figuring out its agenda. He promised me a longer response after he’d had time to contact the proper authorities throughout the DOD, and I will pass along what I learn.

Meantime, below the fold is a breakdown of my preliminary questions to Pentagon officials – questions I’d like to see much more front and center in the debate over our strategies in Afghanistan. Public debate over these issues would be especially useful now as the DOD figures out what precisely Brooks’ new office should be focused on – and what kinds of resources it needs to do its job effectively. And just maybe if the mainstream media and informed citizens continue to press DOD on these types of questions, public affairs officers like Major Perrine will eventually be briefed on some of the answers. Read more…

The Worst Argument Against Park 51 Until The Next One

[ 12 ] September 1, 2010 |

And, actually, the New Criterion’s effort may be very hard to top; the logic is turbid and the anonymous author’s heart fairly oozes tenebrosity. Indeed, the pompousness-to-intelligence ratio is so high I suspect it may have been written by Kimball himself.

see also.

An Ode to Ichiro

[ 8 ] September 1, 2010 |

OK, it’s not an ode  in a technical sense, but ode is a word I’ve often thought of when considering Frank Deford.

Do We Need Glenn Beck To Help Us Understand Political Self-Dealing?

[ 8 ] September 1, 2010 |

If I understand Matt’s defense of Reihan Salam’s “Glenn Beck is the new Malcolm X” piece correctly, he seems to be arguing that we should ignore the offensively silly framing device and instead focus on the highly banal points about America’s changing demographics.    Fair enough, I guess, but I still don’t see what’s new about demagogues appealing to reactionary white people or how this specifically illuminates Beck.   In particular, the opposition of older people to the new health care bill says very little about changing demographics or Beck, but is just straightforward “I’ve got mine *^$# you” politics that is as old as the hills and would exist even if the country’s other racial and cultural demographics weren’t changing.   If conservative older Americans were in favor of abandoning their own taxpayer-funded healthcare I might buy “nostalgia politics” as the primary motivating force, but of course they don’t.   The tendency to act in one’s political self-interest is universal, not particular, and affluent old white people being conservative isn’t exactly a new phenomenon crying out for explanations.

Deep Thought

[ 2 ] September 1, 2010 |

Nothing enriches the modern computing experience liking having control of your browser seized for several minutes because a company whose software you rarely if ever use wants you to install an update of trivial importance.   PointCast may be dead, but its spirit lives on!

The Guilt-By-The-Most-Tenuous-Association Gambit

[ 30 ] September 1, 2010 |

In comments, embarking on the futile quest to develop an ex post facto rationale for outrage over the Burlington Coat Factory community center that sounds non-discriminatory, the Sanity Inspector argues:

If it helps, think of this analogy: In order to build bridges with Vietnam, signaling a new era of friendship and bridge-building with them, let’s put up a statue of General Westmoreland next to their war memorial in Hanoi.

It does, if not in the way that Mr. Inspector intends.   I assume most of you who are seeing this for the first time can sport the glaring fallacy here. General Westmoreland was actually personally responsible in some respect for the death of many Vietnemese citizens. Feisal Abdul Rauf had absolutely nothing to do with the 9/11 terrorist attacks. So the analogy is transparently specious, and this goes for all of the variants, up to and including Newt Gingrich’s “Nazi sign next to the Holcaust museum” crap.

Given that they’re based on guilt-by-association, in other words, these analogies merely reaffirm that opposition to Park51 is driven pretty much exclusively by religious discrimination and bigotry. As I’ve said before, I’ll take such arguments seriously as soon as the people making them start arguing that no Christian churches be permitted within some arbitrary radius of any medical facility, lest women be reminded of Scott Roeder’s religiously motivated terrorism.

Now Get Those Damned Vets Off My Lawn

[ 8 ] August 31, 2010 |

Shorter Alan Simpson:  “I can’t believe these veterans.   First, they risk their lives, often to fight idiotic wars cooked up by reactionary policymakers such as myself (you know, people who actually deserve taxpayer-funded health care and cushy pensions), then they expect us to pay them health benefits.   I wish these damned freeloaders would stop sucking my tits.”

This is why I “support” majoritarian rule.

[ 33 ] August 31, 2010 |

As a means of registering my discontent with conservative claims that the fact that 70 percent of Americans abhor the idea of the “Ground Zero Mosque” means it should be abandoned, I hereby present other things that 70 percent of “certain” Americans once hated.  For example, consider the responses to this question from a Gallup Poll reported in the Los Angeles Times on 14 July 1963.*

I snipped the June numbers because at that point only 62 percent of respondents had decided that the Civil Rights Movement was moving “Too fast.”  I also have other, less inflammatory, examples.  To wit:

That would be from the Los Angeles Times four days earlier.**  I did say I was only referencing “certain” Americans, however, and because I’m an honest chap, I’ll tell you that Gallup calls them “Southern Whites.”  You heard that correctly: the same conservatives who illegitimately claim the moral high ground Martin Luther King, Jr. struggled to capture have the same high regard for Muslims as Southern segregationists once did for blacks.  To put it finely:

Those who oppose the building of Park51 are justifying their opposition on the fact that the same percentage of Americans are currently as bigoted as Southern whites demonstrated themselves to be when asked how they would “feel about a law which would give all persons—Negro as well as white—the right to be served in public places such as hotels, restaurants, theaters and similar establishments.”  All of which is only to say that insisting that this “is” should be enshrined in history as an “ought” makes a person as big of a bastard as a Southern white who couldn’t brook the thought of sharing his or her establishments with an African-American.

It’s a rebellious stance to be sure, but in the end they’ll be standing in a field screaming “Wolverines!” while the world passes them by.

*Gallup, George. “Views Revised on Rights Push.” Los Angeles Times (14 June 1963): M2.

**Gallup, George. “Slim Majority Backs Accommodations Bill.” Los Angeles Times (10 July 1963): C18.

How Managers Matter, Part 1

[ 18 ] August 31, 2010 |

I’ve been meaning to contest David’s contention that sabermetrics proves that managers don’t matter. I don’t actually think that sabermetrics has proven this, and I also don’t think it’s plausible. As it happens, I’ve just started to read Chris Jaffe’s Evaluating Baseball Managers, which (to the extent that what I’ve read so far is representative) is the most interesting work of sabermetrics I’ve seen in many years. I’ll leave my discussion of the book primarily to a more appropriate weekend slot, but since it’s come up recently I’d thought I’d make a couple initial points.

First of all, I just don’t think that a careful look at how teams develop and perform can be squared with the conclusion that managers don’t really have any impact. To take on obvious example, if you look at Earl Weaver’s teams, you’ll see some clear characteristics: a usually four-man rotation that is unusually effective, healthy, and that absorbs a huge number of innings; extensive use of of the bench, with attempts to skim cream by using matchups; 3)limited use of one-run strategies; and 4)related to the first two, using some one-way defensive players like Belanger, Blair and Dempsey without costing the team ability to score enough runs to win. You’re telling me that if someone like Don Zimmer or John McNamara — a completely conventional manager who doesn’t use the bench and has no particular ability to get good performance out of pitchers — was managing the Orioles in those years, they would have had the same success? Is Earl Weaver in the Hall of Fame just because he managed for a long time “without blowing his brains out?” I think that’s ridiculous. Or to borrow one of Bill James’ favorite example, there’s no way that a good manager — one that wouldn’t have overworked his top two starters, knew that Adock was a vastly better player than Frank Torre, etc. — wouldn’t have won the pennant with the ’59 Braves. It’s just one variable, and obviously no manager can win without talent and a mediocre manager can win in the right circumstances — but it matters.

So I don’t buy the idea that Lou Piniella is just an innocent bystander in 1998, or that management played no role in the fact that the Mariners finished more than 10 games behind a team without an obvious talent edge going into the season. One of the biggest differences between the teams is that Oates got a lot of decent-to-excellent performances out of relievers who (Wetteland aside) had very modest credentials, while the Mariners’ bullpen was a complete catastrophe.  As I said, this isn’t the only or even the most important factor; the inability of the Mariners’ ownership and management to sign Johnson to a new contract and some bad trades were more important factors.   But there was no reason that team should have finished more than 10 games out; the Rangers weren’t exactly solid top-to-bottom either.   I hadn’t read his profile before using the example, but Jaffe shows that in Oates’ case, this was no fluke — in both Baltimore and Texas Oates consistently had overachieving bullpens. Piniella, on the other hand, just as one would expect consistently overachieved on offense but had an erratic (and, on balance, negative) effect on his pitching staffs. There are managers who have the ability to repeatedly construct a functional bullpen out of modest materials (Bobby Cox, Gene Mauch and — more about him later — Cito Gaston would be other good examples); Piniella just isn’t one of them. And in some contexts that can make a big difference. This doesn’t mean that Piniella wasn’t a good manager, but it is one reason that his overall performance isn’t Cooperstown worthy.