Election of the Weekend: Saxony-Anhalt

I usually don’t bother with subnational elections unless there’s something particularly interesting or important about them. Saxony-Anhalt isn’t exactly a terribly important German state (I’d wager less than one in ten people reading this could name the capital and largest city* off the top of their heads.) This particular election is noteworthy not because of the jurisdiction, but because of what is likely to happen. In 2024, a Rubicon was crossed in Germany when AfD finished first in the 2024 Thuringia election, their first top finish in a state Landtag election. But at 33/88 seats, it was easy enough for the other parties to block them from government. Sunday’s result could be far worse:

The far-right party Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is set to make a major breakthrough.

Saxony-Anhalt, a former East German state of around two million people, is relatively small. But the significance of the election there on Sunday could be seismic. The AfD is on track to win overwhelmingly and perhaps even secure an overall majority, which would mean that it could form a state government for the first time in its history. Long confined to the opposition, the AfD now stands on the cusp of wielding power — regionally, at least.

The rise of the AfD has already made coherent and stable government difficult at the national level. Its success in last year’s federal election, in which it came in second, with 20 percent of the vote, forced the center-right Christian Democrats to form a government with the center-left Social Democrats. The two parties have squabbled since Friedrich Merz became chancellor, and the AfD has surged in the polls. Now it is by far the most popular party in Germany.

What makes the AfD’s rise especially shocking is that it is much more extreme than other European far-right parties that either are already in power, like Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, or could be soon, like Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Whereas those parties have sought in some ways to detoxify and moderate themselves, the AfD has become more radical over time, deepening its ties to neo-Nazis and promising to repatriate migrants. As it has done so, it has grown more popular.

The polling has been quite stable: AfD appears to be between 40-43%. Under the German electoral system, the final parliamentary result tends to be quite close to the vote share due to compensatory/overhang seats. But that doesn’t account for parties that fail to meet the 5% threshold. So whether AfD gets their majorities may depend as much on whether small parties come in just under or just over 5%. On that front, we have FDP, who seem stuck at 3% and should probably be abandoned for that reason. The Greens appear to be just over the cusp, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (BSW) is coming in at 4% in most recent polls, with a couple of 5% results. (This party, founded in 2024 as a breakaway from Die Linke, appears to really roll with Die Linke’s worst tendencies — reactionary social conservatism, Russophilia, dumb versions of left-populist economic policies that would be unlikely to accomplish their goals, etc.) Weirdly, voting for those nuts might not be the worst idea, although it’s risky — a 4.9% result is the worst possible outcome. (ETA: disregard this, BSW is AfD-coalition curious) ht Incontinentia Buttocks below)

I have no idea if a CDU led coalition with SPD, Greens, Die Linke, and Die Linke’s edgelord cousin, with a threadbare majority between them, could be functional, but I hope to God they get the chance to try.

*Magdeburg