Shall We Be Ceasing Fire Today?
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The U.S.-Iran truce that has been on shaky ground for weeks appeared to edge closer to collapse on Wednesday after the two sides traded new attacks and President Trump said he considered the deal to be over.
The renewed hostilities and pessimistic rhetoric followed weeks of occasional exchanges of strikes and brewing tension over shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to a question at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, about the state of the cease-fire, Mr. Trump responded: “To me, I think it’s over.” Mr. Trump also disparaged Iran’s leadership as “cuckoo,” even as he added that he was open to further talks. His comments caused the already high price of oil to jump further.
Earlier on Wednesday, Iran’s armed forces said that they had attacked U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. Before those attacks, the United States carried out airstrikes against several targets in Iran and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales.
We’ll see if they can piece it back together by Friday. This is of course what many of us were talking about when we were arguing that the MOU was amateurishly negotiated and likely to result in a resumption of hostilities. This was not “attacking the MOU from the right;” it was pointing out that a poor institutional structure was unlikely to accomplish what it was supposed to accomplish.
If I were Trump I’d also be worried about the Red Sea:
Somali pirate attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Aden region are on the rise, according to the U.N., a naval task force and a joint naval communications operation. The spike comes amid ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf between the U.S. and Iran, and one regional military task force tells us these Somali Pirate Action Groups (PAGs) may be taking advantage of that situation. Meanwhile, a think tank suggests that the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are aiding these pirates in a form of so-called gray zone conflict.
Regardless, these incidents are posing increased security risks to a commercial shipping industry already roiled by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and its ongoing aftermath, which is starting to heat up again after about a week of calm.