Sunday Morning Comin’ Down

It’s a hard Sunday when the good people of Kentucky aren’t even running to Williamstown to visit the Ark Encounter. What is that? Oh, it’s the Ark replica that reminds visitors how right-wing extremist versions of the Bible are correct. You know, dinosaurs existed then, the world is 6,000 years old, gays were killed, all that good stuff. Now, these people totally believe in the free market. You can tell their deep ideological consistency because the whole thing was floated with junk bonds by the city of Williamstown for attendance that has been disastrous compared to predictions:

In 2013 Ark Encounter sold the little town of Williamstown on the idea of issuing $62 million worth of junk bonds to get the Ark up and running, a sweet deal sweetened even more by the agreement that 75% of what Ark Encounter would pay in property taxes over the next three decades would instead go to paying off the loan.

Central to the sales pitch made by Ken Ham and colleagues was the “Ark Encounter, LLC Feasibility Report,” which was presented to Williamstown officials, and which included “Visitation Projections.” On the first page of this section there is the confident claim that “the Ark Encounter is expected to attract between 1.2 million and 2.0 million visitors (or an estimated average of 1.6 million visitors) during the first year of operation.” And this would be just the beginning. Later in the report, in the “Financial Projections” section, there is the prediction that there would be “Annual Attendance Growth” in the first ten years of the Ark’s existence. 4% annual increase would be the norm, but there would be a few years (thanks to new exhibits) in which there would be a 10% growth in attendance.

Using the “estimated average of 1.6 million visitors” in the first year, here are the projected attendance numbers contained in the feasibility study:

• Year 1: 1,600,000
• Year 2: 1,664,000 (4% increase)
• Year 3: 1,730,560 (4% increase)
• Year 4: 1,903,616 (10% increase)
• Year 5: 1,979,761 (4% increase)
• Year 6: 2,177,737 (10% increase)
• Year 7: 2,264,846 (4% increase)
• Year 8: 2,491,331 (10% increase)
• Year 9: 2,590,984 (4% increase)

Not to put too fine a point on it, Ark Encounter has not come close to meeting these projected attendance numbers. Each month the indefatigable Daniel Phelps – founder and president of the Kentucky Paleontological Society – asks Williamstown officials for the total amount collected that month from the safety fee, a number which gives us a clear picture of Ark attendance.

And here are the actual attendance numbers:

• Year 1(JY 2016-JE 2017): est. 800,000 (50% of projected attendance)
• Year 2 (JY 2017-JE 2018): 865,761 (52% of projected attendance)
• Year 3 (JY 2018-JE 2019): 875,882 (51% of projected attendance)
• Year 4 (JY 2019-JE 2021): 841,772 (44% of projected attendance)
  • Given the impact of COVID on Ark attendance, I left out March 2020-February 2021
• Year 5 (JY 2021-JE 2022): 775,731 (39% of projected attendance)
• Year 6 (JY 2022-JE 2023): 782,660 (36% of projected attendance)
• Year 7 (JY 2023-JE 2024): 764,258 (34% of projected attendance)
• Year 8 (JY 2024-JE 2025): 682,101 (27% of projected attendance)
• Year 9 (JY 2025-JE 2026): 664, 813 (26% of projected attendance)
  • For May-June 2026 I used the attendance numbers from May-June 2025. If history is any guide, this may serve to overestimate Year 9 attendance.

Jesus loves the free market, as you know.