Election of the Day: Bangladesh

Polls have just opened in Bangladesh, where voters will elect a new Jatiya Sangsad (the 350 seat unicameral legislative body of Bangladesh) and vote on a constitutional referendum. 300 seats are elected directly, via SMD-FPTP. The remaining 50 (reserved seats for women) are distributed among the parties, from party lists, proportional to seats won.

This is a pretty important election for Bangladesh, as it marks the first election since 2024’s July Revolution, and offers a chance to take an important step in toward consolidation. For those who may not recall, Bangladesh saw a massive, youth-led uprising against de-democratized one party regime led by Sheikh Hasina and her Awami league. The proximate spark for the movement was frustration with the quota system for government employment. 56% of civil service positions were reserved for various groups, including 30% for descendants of those designated “freedom fighters” in the 1971 war for independence, leaving only 44% for merit based recruitment. Their demands quickly spread toward other corrupt aspects of the political and economic order thwarting the economic prospects of the next generation. The movement was reasonably united in what it opposed, but less so in what it wanted, as it contained conservative Islamist and more moderate to progressive elements as well. After six weeks of protests, the government responded with brutal violence in mid-July. That didn’t have the intended effect either and she fled the Prime Minister’s residence, and subsequently the country by helicopter on 5 August 2024. She maintained a desire to return to contest the next election, but since then she has been charged with 135 counts of murder for her role in the massacre, and the Awami league has been formally banned. She and her family (including UK Labour MP and former Starmer cabinet minister Tulip Siddiq, her niece) are also under investigation for their alleged roles in a massive embezzlement scheme. For the better part of the last 18 months, Bangladesh has been led by an interim government led by the 85 year old Economist and Nobel Laurate, Mohammed Yunus.

The main parties contesting this election are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, a longstanding catch-all party that boycotted the 2024 election, and a 11 party coalition led by Jameet-e-Islami (a longstanding Islamist party banned since 2013 from electoral competition), other Islamist parties, and some parties representing the student uprisings of 2024. What polling exists seems to suggest the BNP should be favored. Voters will also vote on a series of constitutional reforms known as the July Charter, meant to modify the constitutional order in a variety of ways to prevent the kind of slide into authoritarian rule that had occurred over the last 15 years.

I don’t have time for a deep dive on this one but it deserves a thread. Some further thoughts from an NYT editorial:

Millions of Bangladeshis had hoped the 2024 uprising would lead to a restoration of stability and accountability. One source of early optimism was the appointment of Muhammad Yunus, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for pioneering microfinance, to lead an interim government.

But Mr. Yunus has struggled to restore calm and discipline in a deeply politicized and fractured state. His administration has lacked a clear mandate and broad support from key political players, and he has been unable to assert effective control over state institutions like the police and the criminal justice system. Such institutions were further degraded after Ms. Hasina’s government fell and senior officials quit, fearing reprisals for past abuses. The rising cost of living, weak wage growth and other economic pressures have burdened many households since the revolution.

The credibility of Thursday’s vote has already been called into question by political violence, accusations of vote buying and other irregularities, as well as a ban on the Awami League from taking part in the election.

The front-runner is the B.N.P., now led by Tarique Rahman, the son of Ms. Zia, who died in December. But there has not been a genuinely competitive general election since 2008, and the electoral outlook is difficult to read. Bangladeshis from a new generation are voting — 43 percent of the electorate is between 18 and 37 — and surveys indicate they are energized more by practical concerns such as law and order, jobs, education, health care and impartial governance than by party rivalries of the past.

Islamist forces are another wild card. Long kept at the margins of politics in Bangladesh, which is a Muslim-majority nation, they have capitalized on the current political and institutional vacuum to become more assertive, raising questions about the commitment to secularism, one of the nation’s founding principles. A recent survey indicated that 37 percent of first-time voters planned to vote for candidates from Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest religious political party. The party espouses a relatively moderate version of Islam and has gained support through organizational discipline and as an alternative to the discredited political duopoly. But other fringe Islamist groups have since 2024 called for enforcement of female modesty rules, imposing the death penalty for blasphemy and even the establishment of an Islamic caliphate.

Bangladesh is trying to rebuild its democratic institutions.

In November the Supreme Court ruled that the previous caretaker government system would be restored for future elections, although not in time for this week’s polls. And Thursday’s ballot will include a referendum on a new national charter that would formally commit the state to enshrining fair elections, judicial independence and limits on executive power.

Translating such ambitions into reality will be difficult. The B.N.P. opposes some of the charter’s core provisions, including limits on the power of the prime minister and greater independence for oversight bodies. Several other parties have also raised objections. If the referendum is approved, implementing the charter will require legislation, constitutional amendments and a level of sustained political cooperation that looks unlikely now.

The stakes are high for Bangladesh.

In the past, rapid economic growth and trade cushioned the ill effects of Bangladesh’s political dysfunction. The economy weakened after the uprising, and although there have been signs of stabilization, new leaders will face a far less forgiving global environment marked by rising global protectionism, fragmented supply chains and climate stress.