A psychology of fandom question
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When I was wrestling with the LLMs yesterday, it wasn’t just a random experiment: it was because I was looking for a good case study in regard to the following question: As a fan, how much do you value championships, in the context of the overall experience of fandom? Here’s the specific example:
This is based on a 30-season period for two NFL teams, which omits the last decade when they have both been mostly terrible. Which team’s performance would you have enjoyed more overall?
From 1986 through 2015, the Denver Broncos had the best record in the NFL, winning 60.4% of its games. The New York Giants were eighth at 54.4%. This adds up to almost exactly one more win for Denver per season on average (out of 16 games so a one-win average edge is significant). The Broncos made the playoffs 17 times, reached seven Super Bowls, and won three. The Giants made the playoffs 12 times, made the Super Bowl five times, and won four.
The basic question is, how much is that one extra Super Bowl win worth to you as a fan? (Obviously this will vary a lot). Denver had five more playoff appearances, meaning they made it 57% of the time while the Giants made it 40% of time. If making the playoffs is the cut off between a basically successful and unsuccessful season, that’s a big difference. If in addition making the Super Bowl is a huge differentiator between a good and a great season, then Denver’s two extra appearances are also a big deal. But . . . one complicating factor here is that Denver got totally blown out in its four Super Bowl losses. The Giants got trounced in their one loss, but they had two big upset victories, including the biggest upset in Super Bowl history (on reflection the point spread in the Colts-Jets Super Bowl might have been slightly higher, but that was in a distant practically neolithic era).
So — it’s a close call I think, at least for me.
Obviously percentages matter here: the difference for a lifelong fan between one championship and zero is immense, while four versus three is a lot less significant, not just mathematically, but psychologically as well. Another factor I suppose is the precise quality of the championship seasons: In the Giants’ case, as noted their fans got to enjoy arguably the biggest upset in Super Bowl history, when a relatively mediocre 2007 wild card team somehow managed to defeat an all-time great team in the form of the until-then undefeated Patriots.
No doubt other factors count as well. Discuss, but feel free to treat this as an open thread for all things fandom-related, and not just sports fandom either.