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This will hurt you more than it hurts me

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One problem with the impulsive military decisions being made from the memory care wing of the White House and the guy slamming David Brooks-strength gin and tonics at Defense is that they aren’t free:

The war in Iran has now cost U.S. consumers $100 billion in higher energy prices, and the bill is rising another $1 million about every two minutes, per a real-time estimate from Brown University as of Monday morning.

Why it matters: Energy inflation shows up across the entire economy, and the recent surge in diesel prices in particular threatens to have a dramatic impact on freight and travel in the weeks and months to come.

By the numbers: The Iran War Energy Cost Tracker from Brown’s Watson School says higher gasoline and diesel prices have cost the average U.S. household more than $760 since the war began Feb. 28.

Most of that is gas, though the diesel burden is rising faster of late.On Friday, diesel hit an all-time record high, and it’s continued to rise every day since. As of Monday morning it’s at $5.90 a gallon, per AAA, up about 60% from a year ago.

Between the lines: Texas has borne the biggest share, with consumers paying around $11 billion in extra gas and diesel costs since the war began in late February, per the tracker.

California and Florida are next, at about $8 billion and $5 billion, respectively.

The big picture: President Trump insists Americans are willing to pay higher prices to keep Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

Yet voters consistently say inflation is their most important issue, and on that subject they give the president substantial negative marks.

Things would be even worse for Trump is the typical marginal voter knew that to the extent that we had to worry about Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, it was because Trump unilaterally tore up an agreement that was working perfectly well for the sole reason that Obama signed it. (Oddly, this never seemed to be a material data point for “Donald the Dove” bullshit artists.) But even that aside, the number of people who aren’t the hardest core of MAGA willing to pay higher gas prices for this is, as a first approximation, zero. Indeed, Trump is president in large measure because the marginal voter would prefer lower gas prices to the maintenance of constitutional democracy in the United States.

But, hey, it hasn’t been bad for everybody:

President Donald Trump’s oil and gas stock holdings may have gained as much as $15.5 million this year, as energy shares surged amid the Iran war, according to a new report from Democrats on Congress’ Joint Economic Committee.

Trump reported owning between $12.5 million and $45.6 million in oil and gas stocks in his 2025 annual financial disclosure. The committee alleges those holdings rose about 39% this year on average through Aug. 17, putting their estimated value between $17.2 million and $61.1 million.

Among his largest reported energy holdings were Exxon Mobil and Chevron, while shares of Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum, which he also reported holding, have more than doubled since the beginning of the year.

I don’t think this is the reason for the idiotic war, per se, but he’s sure going to clear a profit on it. Time to take another look at the incident where someone asked Hillary Clinton for a diplomatic visa and she refused.

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