Week 61
By 
Happy Spring!
The war on Iran is not going according to Trump’s preferences. Who knew they would strike back?
Trump won’t reveal his objectives because if he doesn’t define things, he can claim whatever happens is victory. But the rest of the world is figuring that out. His predominant mood over the past 24 hours seems to be toward declaring victory and leaving the mess to others.
It’s not the Strait of Hormuz that is blocked, but all traffic in the Persian Gulf. Iran is the full northern shore of the Gulf and thus controls all traffic. The Strait seems not to be mined, and Iran is allowing ships to go through that are carrying Iranian oil and have paid in Chinese yuan. Trump wants others to “open up the Strait,” but it’s hard to see how anyone can do that by military force. He also talks about taking Kharg Island, which seems pointless. But he’s got Marines on the way. If there had been a plan, they would have been there at the start.
A very good article from two friends on the Venezuela operation.
Nations that ordinarily would be allies with the US have more or less are refusing to help clean up his mess. The UK is allowing the US to use some of their airfields. As the supply chain pain increases, they may step in, but leaving him to stew is a good plan for a while.
I would think that they are also using diplomacy behind the scenes, with Israel and Iran as well, but that seems to be a path totally excluded from Trump’s skull.
Iran demonstrated a couple of ballistic missiles to Britain’s Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. Turn that range around, and you’ve got Paris.
Meanwhile, the Republicans are all lined up in their clown shoes ready to support a $200 billion request from “Kill ‘em all” Hegseth by raiding what’s left of healthcare. Democrats may be developing spines on this.
DHS, between a puppy killer and the guy who wants to make dueling great again, is using its funding deficit to make airport lines more miserable. Democrats point out that they are offering to fund all of DHS except ICE and Republicans refuse.
I am looking forward to the nonpassage of the SAVE Act, so that we no longer hear Republicans claiming that we have to have id for every action of every day. This is largely an abasement of fealty to Trump on an act primarily designed to supplicate his delicate fee-fees about losing the 2020 election.
Which brings up the question of why they are doing that. Trump’s popularity is cratering. They have elections coming up. The poll numbers are dreadful for their side. One would think they would cut and run.
A reminder for No Kings next Saturday, March 28. Find the demonstration nearest you here. One of the effects of demonstrations is to show politicians where support lies.
Follow the court-watchers for the details of the lawsuits. Chris Geidner (LawDork, Bluesky), Roger Parloff (Lawfare, Bluesky), and the Just Security tracker.
Let’s stay away from hypotheticals, as usual. Post your pets.
147 more weeks to go. What are you doing?
Previous weeks: Week 10, Week 20, Week 30, Week 40, Week 50, Week 60