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Donaldus Venezuelarum Conquestor

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Shit’s fucked up.

But… everything may not go right. 

If Maduro’s successor (whether Vice President Delcy Rodriguez or some other figure) maintains control over the government and seeks to put down any unrest violently, Caracas could see considerable bloodshed in the coming days to no good effect. 

If the military fractures rather than solidifies behind a single successor candidate, the country could see civil war. 

Prolonged unrest in Venezuela will be terrible for all of the ends that the Trump administration has purported to seek. 

Civil conflict, in general, produces far more refugees than an authoritarian government. Criminal gangs (including drug cartels) thrive during periods of civil disorder. The Venezuelan oil industry depends upon a stable domestic order.

And notwithstanding the technically impressive nature of the strike, it leaves the US with limited avenues for influence over events in Caracas. The US does not have troops on the ground in Venezuela, in stark contrast to the situation in Panama in 1989 or Iraq in 2003. The Trump administration’s relations with Colombia have deteriorated, cutting off another avenue of potential influence. 

I actually watched parts of the press conference and good lord, the Old Man looks and sounds terrible. This attack seems to have been the result of some pretty awful committee thinking, in which the head of the committee (Trump) is completely checked out and the rest of the group just wants to grab whatever they can. Doesn’t bode well for either Venezuela or the United States.

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