Election of the day: Samoa

In late May, Samoan prime minister Afioga Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa’s proposed budget failed to pass parliament, leading to her to call for a snap election on Aug. 29th. Mata’afa was quite lucky to become PM following the 2021 general election: her party at the time, Samoans United in Faith (FAST), tied with their main opposition, the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) at 25 seats each, despite HRPP winning over 55% of the vote to FAST’s 37%. The parliament contains 51 seats, all SMD-FPTP, so control of parliament came down to the one independent candidate, who preferred, and eventually joined, FAST. But by 2025, personnel changes had made her government a minority, and while she survived a number of close no confidence votes earlier in the year, she couldn’t get her budget through. In addition to substantive concerns over her budget, her popularity had slipped further in part due to her being blamed for a series of devastating and economically harmful nationwide power outages throughout the Spring.

This is shaping up to be an unpredictable 3-way election. Fiamē has lost control of FAST to La’aulialemalietoa Leuatea Polata’ivao Schmidt (generally referred to as La’auli), her one-time agricultural minister. Fiamē fired him from her cabinet in 2023, after he was charged with a number of corruption-related offenses, including ” attempting to pervert the course of justice.” A few days after calling the snap election, she registered a new party, Samoans United (SUP), which is fielding candidates in a majority of seats. The third contender is HRPP’s leader, Tuila’epa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi (short name: Tuila’epa). Tuila’epa is 81 years old, and served as prime minister from 1998-2021, before his close, fluky, improbable loss to Fiamē’s party.

So what’s at stake here? Apropos of the times we live in, cost of living issues have dominated the campaign. Fiamē has proposed reducing tariffs on staple foods, as well as expanded free education and hospital services, increased payments to disabled Samoans, and improved government services for the outer islands. Tuila’epa has run a populist campaign, centered on a promised annual payment of 500 Tala (just under 200 USD) annually to each Samoan. He has also pledged to construct a bridge between Samoa’s two main islands, which seems wildly implausible and almost certainly prohibitively expensive to me (it would need to be over 14 miles long, over open Ocean). La’auli appears to be the charismatic leader of the bunch, managing to seize control of the party out from under the PM despite being under indictment for a number of serious crimes (he has proclaimed his innocence, naturally). He regularly holds large rallies, where he repeats disproven conspiracy theories about Fiamē, who has filed what sounds like a slander lawsuit against him. He’s campaigning on free hospital services, monthly payments to pregnant women, and increased cash assistance to the poor.

For more details, I recommend Asofau So’o’s write-up of the election. He considers Tuila’epa and HRPP to be the frontrunners, with the core question being whether they’ll achieve a majority. (He expects no seats to go to any independents or minor parties.) As he notes, Samoa’s history with coalition and minority governments inspires little confidence, if they do not. One interesting wrinkle to their electoral system: parliament must be at least 10% women, so if FPTP results in less than that, additional members will be added. My understanding is it would be the best performing women candidates who did not win their seats. It appears to be the case that there are enough strong woman candidates that this is unlikely to occur.