Election of the Weekend I: Poland

Back in 2023, Donald Tusk led a broad coalition that managed to do what opposition coalitions in Hungary and Turkey could not: defeat and replace an illiberal, de-democratizing hyper-nationalist party that had been in power for 10 years. But Poland still has a PiS-sympathetic president, which has made the reforms the current government has attempted to put in place much more difficult. Poland’s president can veto legislation, with a 3/5 majority required to override, which means PiS still has an effective veto over Tusk. Duda’s veto power has prevented Tusk from delivering on a number of promises, including liberalizing abortion law, granting the Silesian language official recognition, and improving access to emergency contraception.

This weekend Poland can rectify this situation and allow Tusk to cook by choosing a new, better president. Polling suggests this outcome is likely, although it will probably require a second round. Rafał Trzaskowski, son of famous Jazz musician and composer, former child actor, political scientist, and current mayor of Warsaw, is a member of Civic Platform’s more progressive wing. He ran for president in 2020 (he lost to Duda by about 2% in 2020) and is running again, currently leading PiS candidate Karol Nowrocki by around 7-10 points in round 1, although the number of minor candidates will likely necessitate a run-off, which Trzaskowski is also favored. The contours of the race are depressingly familiar; Trzaskowski downplaying his history of social liberalism and trying to shake off his reputation as a privileged Warsaw cosmopolitan, accusations of foreign sympathies (Germany and Ukraine in one direction, Russia in the other), and the like.