NFL Open Thread: Checkout Time in Vegas Edition

Like many people, I thought that Pete Carroll would at least impart a certain level of baseline professionalism to the Raiders operation, and hoo boy did I shoot a brick on that one:

When Las Vegas Raiders head coach Pete Carroll made the decision after last week’s debacle of a loss to the Cleveland Browns to fire offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, it did more than shine the spotlight on himself for the rest of the 2025 season and into the offseason.

It also highlighted the lack of cohesion in the coaching offices, while explaining one of the reasons why the Raiders have struggled amid a 2-9 season in Carroll’s first year.

By any account, Kelly’s 11-game tenure that ended with a brutal home loss to Cleveland was a disaster, as the NFL’s highest-paid coordinator ran one of the league’s worst offenses.

But based on the views of those who studied the offense and based on those who game-planned against it this season, they don’t believe Kelly was running his own offense at all. It was unlike anything Kelly previously had run.

In fact, defensive coordinators likened the Raiders offense this season more to Shane Waldron’s offense with the Seahawks in 2023, Carroll’s last year with Seattle. Kelly’s trademark creative runs out of shotgun had been dramatically limited. Instead, the blend of Seattle and Las Vegas schemes tilted far more toward the under-center zone scheme Carroll favors.

One previous opponent even had their scout team prepare cards based on Seattle plays of the past under Carroll, sources say.

Which is why, though interim OC Greg Olson will likely go a little more up-tempo look and try to protect quarterback Geno Smith better, it’s expected to be the same plays starting when the Raiders play the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.

How bad has it been this year in Las Vegas? The Raiders have scored 15 points per game this season, tied for last in the NFL with the New Orleans Saints. They are also last in the NFL in yards per carry for the second straight season (3.5 in 2025; 3.6 in 2024).

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NFL Network Insider Tom Pelissero reported this past week on The Rich Eisen Show that Kelly sometimes botched his own play calls and, on several occasions, called plays that weren’t in the game plan. That’s a rarity in the NFL. Kelly, a 62-year-old who has run his own offense countless times, also was miffed at how heavy-handed Carroll was with what he wanted to run, and how he wanted it run. Sources say Kelly expressed frustration about the setup.

Kelly was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2024 where he helped lead the Buckeyes to a College Football Playoff championship. He held a few options prior to taking the Raiders OC job in Feb. 2025, which marked his return to the NFL after nearly a decade away. Perhaps Kelly would have chosen a different opportunity if he had realized the lack of autonomy he would have in Las Vegas.

I won’t say it’s an injustice for any coach associated with this imploded casino to get fired, and presumably part of the reason for Kelly’s declining influence is that he hasn’t really come up with an Act II that can work at the NFL level after coordinators figured out the up-tempo concepts he had success with in his first year with the Eagles. And I doubt Pete was insisting on doing stuff like leaving a replacement-level tackle on as island against Myles Garrett multiple times last Sunday. But it also feels like Chip is being made a scapegoat for terrible personnel, Pete’s insistence on outdated offensive concepts, and what turns out to be Pete’s really bad bet on Geno Smith.

Then there’s this:

In the spring, for instance, sources said coaches were excited about the possibilities of Kelly’s gun-based offense, only to run basically none of it this season. Not helping matters was that Kelly’s staff contained mostly coaches with connections to Carroll, including offensive line coach Brennan Carroll and Olson. That made the blend of offenses not really a blend at all.

It’s not just that Carroll has not one but two of his sons on the staff, but the less experienced one is the o-line/running game coordinator. (Which in itself is a red flag. Hire Pete Carroll’s son to coach defensive backs? I can buy that. But offensive line coaching is an area where I would want the apple to be as far away from the tree as possible.) And if any coach on the staff deserves to be fired, it’s the guy responsible for the running game and the o-line. I don’t think it was a good idea to draft Jeanty 7th overall, but he has basically no chance behind this line with these concepts. And while Geno has to take the a lot of responsibility for his obscene sack rates — he’s always held the bar too long — playing behind the line that doesn’t rank last in the league only because the Chargers have lost both their tackles sure doesn’t help.

Personality-wise, Carroll couldn’t be more different from Bill Belichick, but between the over-reliance on cronies of dubious merit and the increasingly shaky personnel judgment, this is looking a lot like the latter’s last years in Foxboro.