Marginal Trump voters wanted 2019 again, but they voted for 2020

JMM makes a critical point here. Even if Trump could be persuaded to largely give up on his trade war like some of his far-too-optimistic allies think will happen, substantial price increases and massive supply disruptions are coming no matter what:

It’s only getting much play in the trade/transport niche press. But pretty real product shortages beginning in mid-May or so are already locked in. They’re maybe a thousand miles out in the Pacific Ocean. Modern trade takes place in gargantuan container ships. There are very detailed records …— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

3/ tariffs. So it’s actually higher than usual because of that. But in the first and second week of May it drops off dramatically. I’ve heard the drop off described in different ways. But the most optimistic seems to be a reduction in imports of about 50% or a bit less. Ships to the west coast go…— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

6/ relatively slow. And it has knock on effects in domestic shipping. It will hit trucking hard but that’s still a couple weeks away. Even if you only have roughly a 50% drop off in volume that shows up not just as rising costs but shortages. And even Trump woke up tomorrow and …— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

7/ called everything off you’d still have a significant period of shortages locked in. And obviously that’s not going to happen. We will also almost certainly see a limited version of the supply chain snarls we say during the pandemic. There are reports of some containers simply sitting or …— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

8/ being abandoned in ports. Also when there’s no product you start laying off truckers or independents do something else. So when the product comes back on line the system to move the product out of port doesn’t come back immediately. The upshot is that we’ve already locked in a long hot …— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

9/ imports summer regardless of what happens now.— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm.bsky.social) April 27, 2025 at 7:19 AM

Inflation was the top issue of many of the marginal voters who led us here. True story! And while Trump did disown some of his unpopular agenda, he always fully owned this.