Election of the Day II: Canada

Today Canadians will join Trinidadians in participating in an early election that will determine if a new PM for the governing center-left party gets to keep his job. Rob, Scott and I discussed this election last week, you can listen here. There appeared to be some evidence of tightening when we recorded last week, and there’s been a bit more sense; CBC is currently reporting a 3.6% Liberal lead nationwide; their lead peaked at 7% early this month. This doesn’t seem to have moved the seat projections much, and there appears to be some reason to believe that the modest Conservative recovery is an inefficient one. CBC has 189 as the median seat projection for Carney’s Liberals and 125 for the Conservatives. Of course, with such small ridings and other parties in play it’s difficult to model the impact of swings, even at the provincial level, with significant accuracy. But for what it’s worth, here’s how they see the odds today: 7/10 chance of liberal majority, 1/5 chance of liberal minority, 1/10 conservative minority, 1/100 conservative majority. We’ll know soon enough.