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It seems increasingly likely that Conor Lamb, who is a dumb and young version of Joe Manchin, is going to lose the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary to John Fetterman, who is by no means not a problematic person, but who is certainly going to vote the right way.

In the final weeks before the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Senate, one of the best ways to see how that contest is going is through advertising. Signs are good for Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. But for Congressman Conor Lamb, not so much.

Lamb had been off the air since March but went back up in the last week, according to an ad tracking source. Figures obtained by The New Republic show that from late March through this week Fetterman was averaging around $500,000 per week on advertising while Lamb’s campaign, during the weeks he’s been dark, was spending $0. There is a pro-Lamb super PAC that has been spending on ads essentially on Lamb’s behalf, but that group, Pennsylvania Progress, is averaging $300,000 per week, still behind Fetterman’s campaign.

Meanwhile, Fetterman has been cranking out ads this whole time with recent ones focused on specific issues like marijuana, immigration, and LGBTQ rights. The clip at which Lamb’s campaign has been sending out fundraising emails is eclipsed by Fetterman’s team too.  Most polling shows Fetterman well ahead of Lamb in the May 17 primary.

Whoever wins will face either Dr. Mehmet Oz or former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick. Donald Trump recently endorsed Oz, and while post-Trump endorsement polling is scant, the possibility that Oz, a TV personality doctor, becomes the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate is serious. 

Fetterman previously ran a longshot Senate campaign in 2016 to no success. The second time looks like it will be the trick for him. “I haven’t endorsed anybody but if I was a betting man today, I would assume, based on everything I see, that Fetterman would win the primary,” Pennsylvania Democratic National Committeeman Jon Saidel told me.

Fetterman vs. Oz would be one of the weirdest Senate races in history. Fetterman once pulling a gun on a Black person is….really bad. I know Pennsylvania insiders who say the man really doesn’t have much of a soul. But he’s been able, by being his own weird self, to be successful in Pennsylvania politics and given who he is likely to be running against, the chance of a Sherrod Brown-like win in the Keystone State becomes far from impossible, even in a bad year overall. We will see.

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