NFL Picks/Open Thread
By Two good games today, and a good time to reiterate that people who think that playoff football needs to be played in sterile environments in Southern suburbs are nuts.
Packers (-3 1/2) over Bears. The Packers have the best QB in the conference, and a (slightly) better defense. Playing at home and with Hester the Bears are a live dog, but…I have to go with the conventional wisdom on this one.
Jets (+4) over Steelers A gut pick. One could give the same kind of analysis here: the Steelers have (all hand-waving about Sanchez’s playoff moxie aside) a substantially better QB and their defense has actually been better this year, plus they’re at home. Even granting that whether the Steelers defense is actually better is questionable — the Jets arguably have better personnel than in 2009, when their pass defense was historically good — that’s a pretty strong prima facie case. So why do I lean the other way? 1)Given the weather, I think (Jets win + Steelers win by less than 4)>50%; 2)Polamalu doesn’t seem remotely healthy, which I think gives the Jets defense the edge; 3)as we saw last week, it’s hard to beat the Jets if they can get to the QB, and the Steelers offensive line involves too many players who are not very good, hurt, or both (in a game rife with talented assholes, Flozell Adams represents a change of pace — an asshole who also can’t play anymore); 4)I think the Steelers will regret giving away Santonio Holmes. My big caveat we might call the Ghost of Herm Edwards: for all his bluster Ryan is extremely conservative about going on 4th down, and trying long field goals at Heinz Field is suicidal. But even with this, in a game that figures to be low-scoring I can’t leave 4 points on the table.
…Is the Falcons/Bears combo the worst #1/#2 seed pair in NFL history? Has to be in the running. This is a minor issue, w/r to the Bears, shouldn’t a team serious about winning be a little more selective in picking its backup?