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Category: Dave Brockington

Pedantic Pet Peeves, Methodological Edition

[ 12 ] February 17, 2011 |

Nate Silver writes an interesting piece about a minor debate surrounding the utility (or lack thereof) of favorable ratings for (largely potential in the case of 2012) presidential candidates this far in advance of the election.  The article linked is technically a response to a rejoinder by Michigan political scientist Brendan Nyhan to an earlier article of Silver’s.  Much like the Arab world and middle east, this debate is currently underway; Nyhan posted a followup yesterday.

Reviewing both sets of articles, I find Nyhan’s arguments more convincing, perhaps not surprising given his training.  In his first piece, Silver suggested that the Republican field — at this point in time — could be considered weak.  Nyhan’s initial reply can be distilled down to so what? While Silver might have misattributed to Nyhan the claim that early polls in primaries are “useless” and “don’t matter” (my quick read of the articles in question is that it’s ambiguous, but the headline for Nyhan’s HuffPost article on the topic would perhaps have been better stated by dropping the word “Primary”) , that’s a secondary topic.  The main point Nyhan makes, citing both Hibbs and Bartels, is that the ephemeral concept known as candidate quality, image, etc., however measured, only has an effect at the margins of an election.  While, as Silver contends, the observations that we have from polling data this far in advance of a presidential election are neither useless nor do they lack salience, they simply don’t matter nearly as much as other factors.  We know what the important determinants will be in advance of the 2012 election: the state of the economy, employment figures, sociotropic assessments of the state of the country, and the interminable wars (or to the right, who lost Egypt), not the relative strength or weakness of the Republican field in February 2011.

Indeed, to underscore this point, Nyhan reproduces a figure from the Hibbs model explaining the performance of the incumbent party in presidential elections with a parsimonious index of growth in GDP and military fatalities.  The model fit (such as it is in a bivariate model) is .90.  Silver, obviously examining a different question — the predictive capability of early net favorable ratings on later net favorable ratings, has a much weaker correlation: .63.  And this brings us to my pet peeve:

That is not a terribly strong correlation by any means, and the number might change some if the study covered more years and included candidates like Mr. Dole and Mr. Reagan. Nevertheless, the relationship is highly statistically significant (italics added). Even at this early stage, polls tell us something — not everything, not a lot, but something — about how the candidates are liable to be perceived next year following the primaries.

It doesn’t matter how statistically significant an estimate is.  Period.  An estimate is either significant or not, based on the degree to which one wants to minimize the risk of a false positive.  The industry standard, of course, is .05, but some are comfortable at .10 (especially when theory justifies the use of a one-tailed test), others prefer .01, but again largely irrelevant.  Responsible analyses report the estimate itself, the standard error, and the p-value, so those of us playing along at home can reach our own judgment. What matters more is the strength of the the observed relationship.  In very large samples (large N studies), even the weakest observed relationships are significant.  I have a couple papers out with Ns in excess of 40,000: virtually everything in the model was significant, if however irrelevant in substance.  Likewise, even strong relationships can be rendered insignificant with a small N sample (because, perhaps, it doesn’t really exist in the population).

Furthermore, statistical significance is only really applicable to drawing inferences from your sample to the target population.  In other words, is what we observe in the sample likewise probably going on in the target population?  I recongize that this is pedantry of the highest order, and Silver doesn’t have the universe of data for his target population, but he comes damned close.  Significance has achieved a currency of its own in both the scientific and broder society, to the point where it is overinterpreted. I once made this point with an article submission, arguing as I had the universe of data, significance tests were technically irrelevant.  Both the reviewers and the editor still wanted to see them . . . that argument never flies.  Everything important was “significant”, and the article was published.

In reality, Silver reports a relationship that doesn’t tell us a whole lot about the bigger picture.  Yes, there is a relationship between net approvals early and late in a campaign, and by this metric the Republican field is atypically “weak” at this point in a campaign, but this affords us limited insight into the chances of either party come 2012.

I also suspect that if you divide the net favorable figures into “well known” and “not well known”, there’s considerably more variance amongst the latter candidates, as attitudes regarding the former have had more time to take hold.  This interests me, but right now I lack the time to do even this simple analysis.


Observations on Privatizing Britain and its Trees

[ 35 ] February 2, 2011 |

The United Kingdom is clearly running out of things to privatize. Thus far, in a few short months, the following has been passed or is under serious consideration:

The university system has been effectively privatized by eliminating funding, though oddly without ceding control.  Students face tuition increases of 200% from 2012.  This will only partially offset the loss in funding from the state, thus universities will likely make entire departments (and the associated academic positions within) redundant.  Here at Plymouth, we recently went through a rough period in 2008 where over 200 positions were eliminated (as I’ve written about before).  Yet, our Vice Chancellor (and “Chief Executive”, a title that prior to the incumbent did not exist) has made national news with a 20% pay rise in the last year alone: the largest percentage increase in the UK.  This led one national paper to coin “The Plymouth Model” : slash jobs and costs (in our case, the wage bill decreased from 59% to 53% of expenses) and be richly rewarded by your Board of Governors.  While commenters in the nationals decry our VC’s £283K salary, a writer over at Labour Left writes in measured anger about it, and bemused students label it insensitive, the University, of course, must justify it somehow.  Granted, it’s not the fault of the VC that she received a massive raise; it’s the Board of Governors (and hell, I wouldn’t say ‘no’ to a 20% pay rise either —   beats the virtually unmeasurable increase I did somehow wander into this year).  So when the Board argues that the VC deserved the raise because “the University has hit stretching strategic targets and is now on a sound financial footing and is thriving” in a release to the local paper also distributed in email to all staff, I relaxed, safe in the knowledge that we won’t have another massive round of staff redundancies due to this “sound financial footing / thriving” malarkey.

At least my institution of higher learning tops one league table.

The NHS.  While the suggested reforms are not explicitly selling off the Health Service, many correctly suspect that this is the direction this government would like to proceed.  See an overview here at Left Foot Forward on how virtually everybody disagrees with the Government’s reasoning and justification.

The BBC.  Not an explicit privatization, not even in a creeping form, by freezing the license fee in name of austerity for five years (yes, I happily paid my £145 for the year this December), the BBC has had to make significant cuts to both its on line presence and to the world service.

Since they’ve taken case of higher education and are working on the Health Service, what could possibly be left to sell off?

Trees. That’s right, the Government is selling off the (quaintly named) New Forest, Forest of Dean, sites in the Lake District, etc.; the goal is to sell off 100% of the publicly owned “English forest estate”.  Ideally, the “heritage” sites will go to charities.  This plan was originally mooted, as everything is now, in the name of austerity in order to reduce the deficit, but it turns out that over 20 years this scheme will lose money for the state.  An on line petition has been circulating in opposition to this plan here.

Labour Shadow Cabinet Reshuffle

[ 10 ] January 21, 2011 |

Alan Johnson, Shadow Chancellor, resigned yesterday in order to spend more time with his family.  This is one of the rare instances where “spending more time” with one’s family means precisely that.  I’ve written positively about Johnson in the past, and argued that he should have challenged Gordon Brown back in the spring and summer of 2009 for the Labour Party leadership.  Furthermore, it’s not a good sign for Ed Miliband to reshuffle his front bench team only a few months into the job.  While Labour are doing very well in the polls at present, there’s enough evidence to suggest that this is primarily due to opposition to the coalition than it is for anything either Ed Miliband or Labour are offering (which is something I hope to write further on if I find the time).

However, I view this reshuffle as a positive step for Labour.  Johnson was out of his depth as Shadow Chancellor; given the slash and burn policy of the Tories and partners, the opposition require a strong, knowledgeable voice to challenge the Government.  Ed Balls is that person.  It’s sound rational politics for the opposition to remain vague on its own plans while exploiting the unpopularity of the Government’s policies, but at least with Balls in Labour might finally develop a credible alternative.  At least they’ve found a strong voice.

Lost in the Shuffle

[ 23 ] January 21, 2011 |

of the senior Senator from Connecticut declining the opportunity to fail in his re-election bid is the retirement of Kent Conrad.  Lieberman’s retirement generated the news, Conrad’s is more salient for the obvious reasons.  While Conrad is not even in the suburbs of my political preferences, instinctively I’m a pragmatist; I’d rather have a right-leaning Democrat representing the 18 people of North Dakota in the United States Senate than a Republican, especially when control of the chamber is at stake.

The political map of the 2012 Senate elections suggests that control is at stake.  23 Democratic seats are up for election, against 10 Republican seats.  As this represents the results of the 2006 elections, a good year for the Democrats, several of these seats are potentially vulnerable in 2012.  Adding North Dakota to the endangered list does not come at an opportune time.  Nebraska, Montana, Missouri, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland should all be regarded as vulnerable.  The Democrats should “keep” Connecticut, and indeed it would likely be an upgrade from a progressive point of view, but the only seat I’d expect Democrats to possibly gain is Massachusetts (lacking some healthy exposure to the crazy in a few Republican primaries, see below).

Normally, I’d argue that we shouldn’t be all that concerned.  2012 will feature a very different electorate than 2010.  It will be more inclined to vote Democrat, and with several assumptions (the economy rebounds, the President appears successful in his dealings with the Republican House, and signature policy victories such as PPACA become embedded in the public consciousness as perhaps popular) a significantly more pro-Democratic electorate.  There were 101 million votes cast for House candidates in 2008 against 78 million in 2010.  The Republicans did win by around six million votes against that shifting electoral backdrop (the Democrats lost 29 million), which could be interpreted as a Republican high water mark (but even the Republicans shed 10 million votes between 2008 and 2010 in House elections).

However, it’s tenuous to make a turnout based argument in the context of the Senate in 2012.  The numbers from the 2006 Senate elections likewise represented an atypical Democratic year; while the dynamics of the 2012 electorate will be more pro-Democrat than 2010, it won’t be a repeat of 2008.  A saving grace might be successful primary challenges from the right to several Republican incumbents, which could replay Delaware or Nevada.

Losing North Dakota has increased the probability that the Republicans recapture the Senate in 2012.

[updates: link to 2012 Senate seats up for election added above.  I knew I was overlooking something.  also refined the House election vote comparisons between 2008 and 2010 in order to more accurately reflect reality.  Serves me to try to write the lecture I’m giving in 20 minutes and this post simultaneously.]

Random Jetlag Blogging

[ 9 ] January 12, 2011 |

I arrived back on the island where I am currently based “yesterday” morning (January 11).  I slept seven hours “last night”, awaking at 11pm (GMT).  I lecture in two hours or so.  I’m sure it will go well indeed, once I work out just where and when I am.

While the social science on a relationship between what passes for political rhetoric in the USA and the events in Tucson is understandably mixed, it is safe to say that the right wing are not the victims.  Unless, of course, you’re Trent Humphries, co-founder of the Tucson branch of the Tea Party International, who believes that “The Democrats are using this opportunity to bludgeon their opponents.”

Oh, if only we were that organized.  It shouldn’t take too much political moxie to work out that the best way to approach this if you’re on the hard right is to point out that Tucson was a senseless tragedy, that violence has no place in society or even politics, and maybe that some on the right have turned the rhetoric up perhaps a little too high on the inflammatory scale.  What you wouldn’t want to do is claim that you, too, are victims.  But at least he recognizes that guns are likely taking a back seat in politics for the time being: “I’m pretty sure that for a little while yet you won’t be seeing any politician holding an AK-47 or an M16. I’m pretty sure that’s going to go away, and the last place that would go away is Arizona”.

An AK-47?

In this review of the right blogosphere, the narcissism stretches far.  (h/t John Emerson and Mark Devlin).

UPDATE:  I was wrong.  It’s really all about Sarah.  “Blood libel” will henceforth enter the lexicon.

In different news, USMNT center back Oguchi Onyewu has moved on loan from AC Milan to FC Twente Enschede, the defending champions of the Dutch Eredivisie (and also located right across the street and rail line from my old office at U. Twente).

Changing the Rules of the Game

[ 14 ] January 5, 2011 |

is undemocratic and evil, unless it suits your agenda.

Both houses of Congress tweak their rules on the first day of a new session.  The rule changes for the 112th Congress, while not revolutionary, are more sweeping than usual.  In the Senate, the Senator Tom Udall (D-NM) hopes to ever so slightly modify the rules of the asinine filibuster, which over the past 30 years has morphed from a genteel oddity of parliamentary courtesy to effectively requiring a supermajority in order to flush the Senate toilet.  This is anomalous, and not explicitly designed into the institution by the Constitution save for the handful of cases where it is (e.g. passing a treaty, over-riding a veto, deciding guilt at a trial of impeachment).

How do the Democrats plan to change the filibuster rule in a body that is only marginally more democratic (and in descriptive terms, probably less representative) than the House of Lords?  By requiring that the Senator executing the filibuster have the temerity to be on the floor of the Senate itself. Which, as anybody who has seen Mr. Smith Goes to Washington understands, is how it ought to be.

Republicans, of course, are seething, but what else is new?  Senator Alexander (R-TN):

“Voters who turned out in November are going to be pretty disappointed when they learn the first thing Democrats want to do is cut off the right of the people they elected to make their voices heard on the floor of the U.S. Senate,”

Except of course that’s precisely what the rule change will effect – ensuring that their voices are indeed heard.

This is a procedural alteration that should have limited impact on the actual execution of the filibuster, yet “Mr. Alexander and others have warned Democrats to brace for a backlash should they act unilaterally.”

Which is exactly what the Republicans are doing in the House.  The rule changes in the House are more substantive and clearly more political and ideological.  To wit:

“Members offering bills for new programs will have to explain how they will pay for them, not by raising new revenues but by finding other ways to cut costs. Each bill introduced will also have to cite the specific constitutional authority for its contents.”

Unless, of course, one wants to repeal health care reform:

“A big exception will be the bill to repeal the health care law that House Republicans plan to bring up next week. That bill will not be subject to amendments, nor will Republicans have to abide by their own new rules that compel them to offset the cost of new bills that add to the deficit; the health care repeal and tax cuts are not subject to this new rule.”

So in the Senate, the Democrats are suggesting a modest procedural change that does little more than return the filibuster to its original spirit, which has Republicans promising a “backlash”.  Yet Republicans in the House have no compunction against establishing rules that have an explicit political and ideological motivation and result, with the added dollop of hypocrisy in exempting their own pet project from their very rules.

This will be a fun Congress to blog about.

Tilting at Windmills

[ 28 ] January 3, 2011 |

A superficial analysis of the House Republicans’ pledge to vote to repeal health care reform is that it’s nothing more than a symbolic gesture.  While many might downplay their modest intellectual prowess, they must possess a rudimentary understanding of the basic institutional structure outlined in the very Constitution that they plan to patronizingly read on the floor of the House on Thursday, right?  A slightly more charitable reading of this vote involves internal Republican politics: placate the lunatic fringe that got you elected prior to getting on with the real work of misgoverning.

However, as both the NYT article above and the Chait article in The New Republic cited in an analysis by The Democratic Strategist suggest, this presents an opportunity for the Democrats to take the initiative in framing the debate on favorable terms, for a change.  Taken individually, many aspects of health care reform are popular.  This can be exploited.  Furthermore, the narrative of a party bereft of original ideas which seeks only to obstruct or destroy should be underlined.  If properly framed and executed, this is a debate that the Democrats and the White House can and should win.

Will they?  I wouldn’t bet on it, but I like to be surprised.  If the Democrats do take advantage of this opportunity, it would afford a more colorful interpretation of the Republicans’ pissing in the wind.

An End of Year Analysis of the Three Main British Parties

[ 0 ] December 31, 2010 |

can be found over at UK Polling Report.  They’re insightful, comprehensive, and informative reviews of 2010 and previews of 2011 of the Tories, the Liberal Democrats, and Labour.  Not surprisingly, Labour looks in a slightly better position than the other two.

Oh, and while I was typically pessimistic, bow down!

Random Sports Catch-up: Cricket, Plymouth Argyle on the Rocks, and UW

[ 4 ] December 29, 2010 |

I’m recently “returned” to Oregon from a week + in Kitsapland, hanging out for five days with my partner’s family, followed by an impromptu three-night stand with my fleet of cousins.  The latter was a non-stop holiday gala with excellent food, political debate, and, oh yeah, soaked with alcohol of all sorts (and at all times).  Beyond my phone I was well off the grid, literally, figuratively, metaphorically.

As predicted in Revelations, England retained the Ashes for the first time in 24 years in imperious fashion.  This now seems so long ago.  Whether or not this is a sign of the promised apocalypse I can’t say, but as the sun is currently shining in Portland, Oregon, I’m not making any long term plans.

In my other home, the third tier “professional” soccer team, Plymouth Argyle, are insolvent.  In American sports, this wouldn’t matter; when was the last time a major league baseball, football, or basketball team was allowed to go bust?  In Britain, it can, and does, happen; the most recent example being Scottish club Gretna FC who folded in 2008.  Argyle need at minimum something around £750,000 by February to pay their tax bill to the Inland Revenue, otherwise they appear to be done.  Indeed, Argyle face three concurrent “winding up orders” and require between £3 and £4 million by February to clear their immediate debts.  The board is in chaos, the staff (including the players) haven’t been paid on time for the second straight month, gates are significantly down from last year due to their relegation to the third division and their (charitably) mediocre play in said division, are under a transfer embargo by the league thus preventing them from so much as retaining a decent player on-loan from Chelsea, and they will certainly be forced to sell their two best players this January in order to possibly stay afloat.  In addition to selling off their best players, thus enhancing the probability of a second successive relegation, there’s talk of selling the stadium to property developers.

UPDATE: less than 24 hours after writing this, a bid has been accepted for winger Craig Noone.  As he’s in his final contract year, and the bidding team is fellow League – 1 side Brighton, the transfer fee won’t clear the tax debt.

Matt Slater at the BBC has the most comprehensive overview on the causes of what could be the end of a 124 year-old club.  Fans have taken matters into their own hands by setting up a supporters’ trust, in part organized by my student and friend John Petrie.  Ironically, Argyle’s Devon rivals Exeter City were saved from liquidation in 2003 by a similar trust, so there might be hope yet.  (Of course, it should be noted that when Exeter City drew 0-0 with Manchester United in the 2005 FA Cup at Old Trafford, the £675,000 cash infusion from the 67,000+ gate did not hurt City’s chances of financial survival).

Back in April, I posted here about how Argyle were officially relegated following their 0-2 loss to Newcastle United at Plymouth.  I had experienced a couple promotion seasons in Plymouth, that was my first relegation season.  Now, being relegated following a match against Newcastle United, or even Huddersfield Town, looks a lot more enticing than experiencing a rare, entirely possible, liquidation season.

And finally, there’s the small matter of my alma mater, the Oregon of the North, playing in the much vaunted Holiday Bowl in San Diego against 17th ranked Nebraska, tomorrow.  I’m certain that Nebraska are all aflutter with the privilege and honor of playing Washington.  I’m equally certain that Nebraska’s 56-21 victory in the third game of the season has absolutely no bearing on the outcome of the bowl game.

Umm, go Huskies.

Random Friday Blogging: Cricket, US Politics, Egg Nog.

[ 11 ] December 17, 2010 |

We can all rest easy now, because in the Cricket, normal business has resumed.

An analysis of player performance through the second test at Adelaide can be found here.  Dated, obviously, as Mitchell Johnson no longer rates as “atrocious” following Friday’s haul, so perhaps he should be upgraded to “mercurial”.  Also, I disagree with the analysis of Andrew Strauss.

A charitable interpretation of the budget-busting extension of the Bush tax cuts is that the Democrats understand that compromise is an essential part of democracy.  This is charitable because it sucks in policy terms, and that progressives are bemused and consider it yet another example of how the Democrats love to roll over and have our tummies scratched, but it’s far closer to the spirit of compromise than the other party has been capable of since the halcyon days of the 1980s.

A vote on the repeal of DADT tomorrow?  One that should garner the 60 votes necessary to do so much as use the toilet in the US Senate?  That’s my Christmas present.  I do believe that we can now safely close the book on progressive policy advancement for the next generation or so.

Every year in my final year American Politics class, I show the 1994 documentary entitled “Taking on the Kennedys”, which is an excellent illustration of retail politics (and anything with a Blossom Dearie track as a theme song has to be good).  It also demonstrates to the students that I can also be critical of Democrats.  On occasion.  (An advantage of working in the UK is that I don’t feel the professional obligation to hide my partisan inclinations in the classroom that I did in the United States).  Somehow showing it won’t be the same any longer, and for whatever sentimental reason, I do find this a little sad.  However, comparing the passing of the Kennedys with the emergence of the storied Paul family is  just a bit wide of the mark.

I’m making egg nog this afternoon, which will result in a festive and merry version of me.  A friend recommended this recipe (h/t Jeff Frane).  It’s reasonably close to mine, except for how it isn’t.  I don’t use rum, only bourbon (Makers Mark) and brandy (technically an inexpensive V.S. cognac).  The milk/cream ratio is the same.  I use 4x the eggs, and I do separate the eggs, and use slightly more yolks than whites.  I also don’t use a blender.  It is fantastically drinkable.

I Don’t Understand The Cricket

[ 13 ] December 16, 2010 |

Australia 268 all out; England 29 for 0.

Ashes Third Test, Perth, Day 1 of 5.  England lead the series 1-0.

It’s not cricket that I don’t understand; it’s this cricket.  England should struggle mightily against Australia in England, and when they pull out an Ashes victory (e.g. 2005, 2009) they should be classic, close-faught affairs that serve as an “advert for the sport”.  Indeed it was watching the 2005 series that hooked me.  In Australia, England should lose, be it 4-1 as in 2002-03, 3-1 as in 1998-99, or the somewhat humiliating 5-0 as in 2006-07.

This, on the other hand, is not part of the script.  England winning a test match by an entire innings?  In Australia?  So dominating a performance that the Ozzies were seriously considering bringing their very own Brett Favre out of retirement?  In between the second and third tests, the Shane Warne story was the story from the Australia camp.  While still semi-active at 41, he hasn’t participated in a full test match since 2007, so it was a long shot, and probably better for all concerned that he didn’t come out of retirement.  Nevertheless, it’s becoming quite apparent that Australia aren’t the same without Warne and Glenn McGrath.  Whereas in the past Australia simply reloaded, now they’re rebuilding.

I don’t think every test will be close to the second in Adelaide, but the odds of England retaining the Ashes for the first time in a long time are excellent.  As the current holders, all they need to do is draw the series.  1-1 would suffice with three draws.

As for Adelaide, I’d have loved to have been there, if only for my love of Coopers Brewery, which from my old brewing incarnation still ranks as one of my favorite breweries.

You Know You’ve Made It

[ 2 ] December 11, 2010 |

when LibDemVoice somehow picks up a conference paper of yours (this one presented at EPOP in Essex mid September of this year).  Long story short: the electoral consequences of raising taxes impacts different parties differently.  Caveat: the version cited would seem to be an earlier draft, as my co-author has since argued that we mis-interpreted the interaction term in the model, hence the clean findings related in the link above are, we believe, a bit more muddled in reality.

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