David Attewell: The Strategic Populism of Podemos
By 
The question of whether the Left can change the Eurozone from within has been tested to its limit by the recent humiliation of Syriza.[1] The potential for a Podemos victory in the upcoming Spanish general elections is probably the last chance for this reformist strategy.
I don’t speak Spanish, nor am I an expert in Spanish politics. But thankfully I don’t have to be.
The leadership of Podemos is heavily drawn from political scientists and other academics from Madrid’s Complutense University, and they don’t hold their cards close to the chest in the manner of most mainstream political leaders. Pablo Iglesias (Podemos’ leader) has offered an unguarded exposition of Podemos’ analysis of the crisis and its political strategy in a recent article[2] and interview[3] at New Left Review. The two documents give us insight into Podemos’ particular brand of populism and the challenges it faces during a key juncture for the European Left.
Regime crisis: Podemos’ opening
Inspired by Gramsci, Podemos views the pre-crisis political system of Spain as dominated by a hegemonic neoliberalism. This dominance was so complete that it didn’t just foreclose the possibility of revolution, but even of moderate social democratic reform.[4] However, the Eurozone crisis and the persistent failure of austerity has delegitimized traditional political elites, and left neoliberalism open to challenge.[5]
The electoral and intellectual collapse of the center-left has been crucial in opening space for Podemos. Across Europe, social democratic parties have aligned themselves with the liberalization of labor markets (“structural reform”) and to a large extent with fiscal austerity. Indeed, in Spain it was the Socialist PM Zapatero who began the deregulation of the labor market and instituted a cap on state deficits in the wake of the Eurozone crisis. The Socialist Party’s crushing defeat at the hands of the conservative Partido Popular (PP) in 2011 left a political void. Indeed, Iglesias points out time and time again that Podemos’ policies seek to resurrect the social democratic policies which the socialists themselves have left behind.[6]
Strategic vision
What is particularly fascinating about Iglesias is that he’s probably the least doctrinaire Marxist imaginable. In a striking departure from the revolutionary vanguardism of the Old Left, Podemos is entirely focused on winning institutional power through electoral means, and is willing to make presentational and ideological compromises to get there. But in a similar vein, Podemos is also a self-conscious product of the failure of New Left protest movements from Occupy to the indignados, rejecting as naïve the “hope that the social could substitute for the institutional.”[7] But if Podemos is laser-focused on developing electoral power, how does it propose to do so?
Ironically, Iglesias shares the core analysis of Tony Blair: the left will continue to lose elections if competition is defined along a straightforward left/right dimension. Yet his conclusions are radically different. Instead of embracing a market-friendly technocratic neoliberalism, Iglesias sees the left’s salvation in a deceptive populism that advances progressive goals while shedding the traditional discourse of left and right. Substantively, this line is superficial: the left/right dimension is still the major dividing line in political economy. But Iglesias argues persuasively on tactical grounds that obscuring it is necessary for success.
Thus instead of identifying as a left, working class party, Podemos seeks to redraw traditional political cleavages by claiming to represent la gente (the people) against corrupt political and financial elites it calls la casta (the caste). Simply put, the goal is to change the debate from one of left vs. right to one of us vs. those corrupt bastards in power. Rather than attacking capitalism, the party is focusing on broadly felt grievances over corruption, evictions, and austerity. It thus hopes to reach beyond the traditional left electorate and into the disillusioned middle class and a generation of unemployed youth. No purist, Iglesias is comfortable strategically ignoring unfavorable terrain, from the monarchy to criminal justice: assuming that “without the machinery of institutional power, it makes no sense at this point to focus on zones of struggle that would alienate us from the majority, ‘who are not on the left.’”[8]
One step forward, two steps back
Podemos has done fairly well so far, contributing to a victory of leftist coalitions in May’s local elections across Spain (most notably in Barcelona and Madrid). But there are signs that Podemos’ model is running into serious problems ahead:
- While shedding the discourse of left and right may have been advantageous in some ways, populist messaging has proven easy to coopt. The new center-right Ciudadanos (‘Citizens’) party has emerged to steal Podemos’ anti-corruption clothes, offering a similar message of rejuvenation without the dangers of a radical confrontation with Europe.
- Podemos has also recently taken a serious hit in the polls, as the humbling of Greece’s Syriza has put into question the viability of an anti-austerity movement within the Eurozone. The party insists it could avoid a similar fate because Spain’s economy is vastly more important to the Eurozone than Greece. Nevertheless, its’ planned path to power domestically requires the disintegration of the center-left PSOE, which Podemos now trails in the polls.
- The ruling Partido Popular has stabilized. Wary of political contagion, the Germans are allowing the right-wing Spanish regime far more fiscal room. Unlike Syriza-controlled Greece, the country is allowed to run an annual deficit of almost 6% and, not unrelatedly, is posting strong growth figures.
Iglesias has a sharp strategic mind and is aware of these dangers.
Yet the hopes of the European anti-austerity movement are riding heavily on Podemos’ success. Indeed, it seems as though Alexis Tsipras and the moderate wing of Syriza are staking everything on it. If Podemos fails, the left will have to start thinking about how to convince populations which are anti-austerity and resentful toward EU elites- but ironically remain attached to the Euro- that the only way to end their economic and social crisis is to leave the common currency.
[1] In its wake, many pro-EU left intellectuals have turned against the Euro (from Owen Jones in the UK to American economists such as Krugman, Stiglitz, and Eichengreen).
[2] Pablo Iglesias, “Understanding Podemos”, New Left Review 93, May-June 2015, pp.5-22.
[3] Interview with Pablo Iglesias, “Spain on Edge”, New Left Review 93, May-June 2015, pp. 23-42.
[4] Pablo Iglesias, “Understanding Podemos”, p. 11.
[5] Ibid, p. 12.
[6] Interview with Pablo Iglesias, “Spain on Edge”, New Left Review 93, May-June 2015, pp. 36.
[7] Pablo Iglesias, “Understanding Podemos”, New Left Review 93, May-June 2015, p. 12.
[8] Ibid, p. 16