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LGM 2012 Electoral Vote Challenge

[ 147 ] October 29, 2012 |

In keeping LGM’s long history of pointless competition community building, let me announce the 2012 LGM Electoral Vote Challenge.  To enter, create a map here, copy the unique URL (through the “share” button), then paste into a comment. Victor will be determined on the assumption that there will be no “faithless” electors.

  • First tiebreaker: Correct President (If Romney wins 274, a 284 is preferred to 264).
  • Second tiebreaker: Closest to Obama national vote percentage (New York Times) as of November 9, 12pm EST.
  • Third tiebreaker: Closest to Obama margin-of-victory in percent in Massachusetts (New York Times) as of November 9, 12pm EST.

One vote per person, which we will enforce to the best of our ability.

My map is here. This differs from the prediction I made in January only by the shift of Ohio from Romney to Obama. Obama national vote: 49.8%.  Obama MOV in MA: 18.2%

Winner gets a prize selected from the LGM Store.

Comments (147)

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  1. tt says:

    Obama 263, Romney 275

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Xsv

    49%,18%

    Obama is probably going to win but the chances are lower than the proportion of LGMers predicting he will.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Why even include the Masshole margin as the tiebreaker? Masshole sucks.

  3. Anderson says:

    Uh, is anyone else missing 60 per-9:38 comments on this thread?

  4. caesaigh says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Xuf

    late to this. I do anticipate Obama gets 50.005% of the PV, Massoftwoshits by 22%.

    Or something.

  5. Ochotona Princeps says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XuX

    National % = 48.7

    Massachusetts MOV= 12.6%

  6. David says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Xvb

    Obama 290, Romney 248

    Obama 50.1%, Romney 48.9%

    Obama MA MOV: 17.4%

  7. bobbyp says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XvI

    Obama 332, Romney the rest.
    Popular vote: Obama 52.03% Romney 47.9%
    Obama MOV, Mass. 17.025% (Joe from Lowell votes statistically significantly more than once).

  8. Dick Morris says:

    Secretary Clinton has shut down my Flash player. I hope you’ll accept my entry without a map.

    Romney wins everything except Colorado, Maryland and Arizona.

    Obama’s share of the popular vote will be 38.54%.

    Romney carries his home state by a surprisingly large 53-46 margin.

  9. Dirk Gently says:

    Obama 303, Romney 235: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XwZ

    Obama 48.7% PV; 16.2% Masshole margin.

  10. Tagg Romney says:

    My dad wins everything except California, New York, DC. Illinois, Hawaii are tossups but will probably go to Ron Paul who will be written in as a spoiler. The Caymans will have three brand new electors this year who will be unveiled on the 7th.

    Romney: 642 ev
    Obama: 23 ev

    Romney: 87%

    Massachusetts goes for Pop by 23%

  11. FIRST READ:

    The electoral map is shaping up for a big Romney win.
    Romney aides are all telling me that every Blue state is now up for grabs. I project Romney to win every state west of the Mississippi and south of the Ohio.

    52,000 EV Romney
    300% Popular Vote Romney
    2% margin Romney Massachusetts

  12. Seth Masket says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XxK

    Obama gets 49.7% nationally, beats Romney by 21 points in Mass.

  13. joejoejoe says:

    Obama 302, Romney 206.

    Romney takes on EV in Maine.

    Obama national vote 50.3%

    Obama Masshole margin 13.7%

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XxH

  14. Ralph Nader says:

    I win 271 electoral votes. Jill Stein siphons off enough to carry Florida.

  15. John says:

    Well, if Obama does lose, I’d like to at least win a prize from the LGM store, so even though I think he’s going to win, here’s my official prediction:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Xyr

    Romney 285, Obama 253

    Obama 47.5%

    Obama wins Massachusetts by 15.

  16. IM says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XyU

    Obama 303, Romney 235

    popular vote Obama 49,9%

    Mass margin: 17,5%

  17. Butcher Pete says:

    http://www.270towin.com/index.php#.UI9vSoVzuQu

    Obama 303
    Obama 50.5%
    Mass 17.6%

  18. Avattoir says:

    http://www.270towin.com/index.php#.UI-KpcXA-d2

    IOW since the joint’ll be down the tubes toute de suite otherwise, might as well throw all down for the metrocentralo black Abe: 347 EVs;

    49.85 percent of the popular vote;

    Ol’ Mass goes O bama by 23%; and

    bonus extra OT tiebreaker: Eric Cantor loses his seat.

  19. Americanadian says:

    http://www.270towin.com/index.php#.UI-SOoXg5Ii

    Obama wins exactly 49 percent of the popular vote and wins Massachusetts by 19%

  20. The Frito Pundito says:

    Oooh! Oooh! Here’s mine!
    http://www.270towin.com/index.php#.UI-uUMVrR8G
    Do I win, do I win?

  21. parrot says:

    this thread keeps losing its mass …

  22. MPAVictoria says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XGS

    Obama wins with 49.3 percent of the vote.

    Mass goes Obama by 19%

  23. JR says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=eJm

    Obama wins the Rust Belt and the Latte Coasts, but Romney takes the entire Confederacy and Flyover-acy. Obama gets 281 EVs. Obama wins MA by 15.1 points, and takes 48.9% of the popular vote nationally. Cleveland Browns beat the Ravens in Cleveland when Cam forgets that he has an All-Pro running back, and Ray Lewis accidentally gets inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.

  24. uncle rameau says:

    Here is the math.

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XIt

    O gets 49.38% nationally

    Mass margin 19.7%

  25. Ron E. says:

    O 347 – R 191 (I see late movement towards Obama giving him NC and FLA which I wouldn’t have predicted even a week ago.)

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XKG

    Obama 50.9%
    Mass. margin 23%

  26. knecht ruprecht says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XMY

    Obama with 294 EV, 49.9% of popular vote. Massachusetts margin 21.2%.

  27. Tracy says:

    Arriving late, but here’s my map for Obama 293, Romney 245:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XRO

    For tiebreakers; Obama gets 49.8% and wins MA by 20.0%

  28. ACS says:

    Somehow I missed this yesterday, but better late than never.

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XTu

    Tiebreakers: Obama gets 49.1%, wins MA by 18.2%

  29. Shredder says:

    I give O 303. But I could be wrong about VA, which appears to be a statistical tie right now. Wong and Silver have O slightly ahead in VA tho, and Mudcat seems to be optimistic about VA Dems’ GOTV. IA is the other razor-thin one I give to O.

    http://www.270towin.com/index.php#.UJAJd4Ypo2X

    knock

  30. Shredder says:

    Woops …. tiebreaker calls:

    Popular by 50.4 %
    MA by 23.1%

    O gets 303 EV:
    http://www.270towin.com/index.php#.UJAJd4Ypo2X

  31. David says:

    Why not?

    http://www.270towin.com/index.php#.UI9_T8VGeSq

    Obama: 323
    Romney: 215

    Obama wins w/ 52% of popular vote
    And margin in Mass: 20%

  32. proud liberal circlejerker says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=YaL

    Obama wins 51.1% of the popular vote
    Wins Massachusetts by a 12% margin

  33. gakke says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Yju

    Obama gets 332, ’cause I’m an optimist.

    50.23 to team O nationally

    and 13.9 to team O in the Mass

  34. Bufflars says:

    Map.

    Obama 284 with 49.8% nationally.
    Mass 21.2%

  35. With purposeful pessimism, so as not to be disappointed:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Zbt

    Obama 280 / Romney 258
    Obama % 49.9%
    Mass margin 21.5%

  36. SpiderBat says:

    Obama 332: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=baoW

    Obama 50.9% nationally, +19.3% in MA

  37. Rick Santorum's Leaky Faucet says:

    I think Obama takes FL, but the margin is within 2,000 votes. Within a hair of 300 EVs.

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