Home / Robert Farley / LGM 2012 Electoral Vote Challenge

LGM 2012 Electoral Vote Challenge


In keeping LGM’s long history of pointless competition community building, let me announce the 2012 LGM Electoral Vote Challenge.  To enter, create a map here, copy the unique URL (through the “share” button), then paste into a comment. Victor will be determined on the assumption that there will be no “faithless” electors.

  • First tiebreaker: Correct President (If Romney wins 274, a 284 is preferred to 264).
  • Second tiebreaker: Closest to Obama national vote percentage (New York Times) as of November 9, 12pm EST.
  • Third tiebreaker: Closest to Obama margin-of-victory in percent in Massachusetts (New York Times) as of November 9, 12pm EST.

One vote per person, which we will enforce to the best of our ability.

My map is here. This differs from the prediction I made in January only by the shift of Ohio from Romney to Obama. Obama national vote: 49.8%.  Obama MOV in MA: 18.2%

Winner gets a prize selected from the LGM Store.

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    • Obama 332, http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XgF

      51.6% nationally. +20.5 in MA.

      Bayes for the win! (In other words: I’d take the under on that over/under in a heartbeat, but I honestly think that something in that neighborhood has the best chance of winning this contest. 332 is the most likely result not because it’s at the median, but because it’s the farthest from any swingy states. And once you assume that’s the number, then you know it’s a good night for the D’s, and so the other two predictions follow from that.)

      53 in the Senate, not counting Biden.

      210 legitimate wins in the house. But 3 of those will be stolen by out-and-out ballot machine fraud, and anyone who complains about it will be dismissed as a conspiracy theorist. (Yes, I’m actually serious about that latter prediction. More so than about the 210, which is a bit optimistic. If you read BradBlog, you’d realize that our voting system is way less reliable than most think.)

      • I realize I wasn’t accounting for 3rd parties in the Obama percentage. I should lower it a bit but I’ll stand by it because hobgoblins.

  1. Put me in the 303-235 map (with VA and OH going to Obama).

    Obama national: 50.3
    Obama MA MOV: 17.6

  2. RF, you posted your “old” prediction twice, and didn’t link to your new prediction, with Ohio going for Obama.

      • Well fuck, this isn’t working at all.

        Obama 290, Romney 248.

        Obama wins: WA, OR, NV, CA, NM, MN, IA, IL, WI, MI, OH, PA, NY, VT, ME, MA, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, VA, and DC.

        Romney wins: MT, ID, WY, UT, AZ, AK, CO, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MO, MS, TN, IN, KY, WV, NH, AL, GA, NC, SC, and FL.

        I know this totally defeats the purpose, but I don’t think it’s my fault that the map thingy is being a stupid piece of shit.

  3. Er, Rob, the map you link “My map is here” is the one from last January, I think. It has Ohio going for Romney anyway.

    There are gonna be a looooootttt of people (including myself) who go in big on ‘nothing south of the Mason-Dixon line and east of the Mississippi voted for Obama’ I think.

  4. Obama 343 Romney 195

    The humiliating track record of MA governors remains unbroken.

    % national vote – 53.0

    MA MOV O +24

    Map here:

    • And since I forgot to include the other things being asked for, here goes:

      Obama 297, Romney 241
      Obama 50.3% Popular Vote
      Massachusetts Margin: +11%

  5. http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Xqd

    Obama 270, Romney 268 (meaning our republic gets 4 more years of drone strikes which totally wouldn’t happen if Romney was president because he only wants to carpet bomb Syria and Iran with depleted uranium weapons. Depleted uranium is all natural! It’s basically the cannabis of faceless mass murder. Not like drone strikes, the crack cocaine.)

    Thank you in advance, Omaha for Obama, is what I’m saying.

    Obama popular vote: 49.5%
    Mass: +22%

    • Look below.

      Romney will win all the tossup states minus OH just on the merits, but the late attack on Jeep/China will obliterate BO’s leads in Ohio and even Michigan (which Romney will carry by a narrow margin). Just like in 1980, it will be a very tight as a tick race until the last weekend when the challenger catapults into the lead.

      • The “late attack” is a defensive “you, too” charge meant to deflect a big weakness of Romney’s. While it might or might not work in that role, it was never intended to obliterate anything.

        Except for the period with the 20 point lead, and the period with the 30 point lead, the 1980 race was really quite tight throughout.

      • yeah, man, jeep ad’s a killer. one thing I love about the people of Ohio is that they’re so gullible and easily misled that they won’t question it at all.

        in fact, once that ad get’s in circulation, I could see a huge Reagan-style landslide against Barack Obama-Carter. Jay Cost, Michael Barone and I were talkin last night about this, and here’s the map we came up with:

        I’m thinking Romney goes on for a 50state grand tour next week. Blue America will come to its senses. DC goes for Obummer because of big government tho…

      • You mean the ad that most folks, including Chrysler Motors (the folks that make Jeeps), say is bullshit? That ad that’s drawing from a story that says almost exactly the opposite of what Romney claims? Yeah, run with that, buddy.

    • I thought about this, and I’ve decided it’s actually a good sign. We’re generally a pessimistic lot, but we’re still predicting victory. And, any objective review of the polls suggests that Obama should win, unless Rasmussen has suddenly become the best pollster in the field instead of the most hackish.

      We also need to think about the Hack Gap. Scarborough and a lot of the other people attacking Silver are arguing that the race is a dead heat and Romney can pull ahead. If that’s the best that the conservative hacks will put out there, then Romney must be behind. Correcting for the hack gap / pessimism gaps, I’d say that things are looking good.

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