The death of Trump

Since we could use a cheerful topic on a Friday afternoon, let’s spend a little time mulling over the statistical probabilities governing Donald Trump’s eventual death.

I’m well aware that actuarial statistics describe probabilities for large populations of at least vaguely similar individuals, and are of limited usefulness in regard to the specific case of Needy Amin — plenty of considerations cut in both directions as to whether he’s more or less likely to die than the average man who turns 80 in two and a half months. But we’re going to ignore that here, and assume all these cancel each other out, and that Donald Trump is just an Average Man.

OK.

Odds that Trump dies within

One year of today: 5.6%. Ugh

Three years of today: 17.6%. Seriously? Come on epidemiology, you can do better than that.

Five years: 30.5%. Still not feeling it.

Ten years: 63.2%. OK now we’re talking. I mean how long is ten years anyway? Doesn’t 2016 (But Her Emails!) seem like yesterday once more?

Fifteen years: 87.9% Mmmm

Twenty years: 97.9%

Twenty-five years: 99.8%

I’m taking the under on all of these, if only to keep hope alive.