Iran War Update: One Full Week
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I did some thinking on what it would require for the Trump administration to carry through on its threats to invade Iran:
Why would the United States want to invade Iran?
The short answer is that it doesn’t; invading Iran is not the act of sane men, or even of the senior national security leadership of the Trump administration.
However, the United States has established conditions for the end of the war that the Iranian government may not be able to meet in any kind of meaningful way.
If the US does not relax its war aims and the Islamic Republic does not collapse, the Trump administration may find itself contemplating the deployment of ground troops in an effort to directly induce Tehran’s collapse.
Other stuff:
- These are the targets we and Israel are hitting across Iran.
- Building “missile cities” was one of Iran’s solutions to vulnerability, but Israel and the US have turned that solution into a problem.
- Iran is targeting extremely expensive missile defense radars.
- Polymarket and Kalshi are really fucking bad and are going to get people killed.
- Trump is going to blame Iran for the destruction of the school in Minab, which was almost certainly the result of a US strike.
- Ten rationales for war in six days! Very helpful for Ends-Ways-Means thinking…
- The war is Bad for South Asia.