On the turning away from Trump

It is not a good sign for the Trump administration that it’s getting this kind of analysis in straight news stories:

Donald Trump won reelection on the promise of restoring the economy and eliminating illegal immigration.

But in the last week, both issues have threatened to turn into liabilities: A stagnant labor market and soaring gas prices amid the Iran conflict are hammering the economy, and the ouster of Kristi Noem from the Department of Homeland Security has cast new light on the administration’s increasingly unpopular immigration agenda. The economic backdrop has grown ominous — Wall Street analysts are warning that surging oil prices could lead to stagflation — and the blitzkrieg of bad news has jeopardized the GOP’s ability to keep voters focused on Trump administration policies that were designed to help with the rising cost of living.

To pause here for a second, I reiterate that the slopulism that works for Trump as a campaigner is not actually useful as a governing strategy, and you can’t message your way out of it. People notice when stuff is expensive and aren’t going to remember “no taxes on tips” or whatever.

“Don’t drag this war out,” the person said. “That’s my best advice for the administration. The country is in no mood for a prolonged war.”

The Iran conflict has put immense upward pressure on oil and gas –- prices at the pump have climbed by more than 11 percent in a week. Now, with employers shedding payroll and Trump pressing reset on who’s leading his immigration agenda, the president is on the backfoot on the two issues he needs to own for his party to win the midterms.

Affordability was a dominant concern even when gas prices were low, said Stephen Moore, a former Heritage Foundation economist who’s been an unofficial adviser to Trump over the years. The spiraling conflict in Iran has pushed oil above $90 a barrel — which is broadly expected to keep inflation high in the near term — and “Trump definitely needs those prices to come down as quickly as possible,” Moore said.

The president, meanwhile, is also struggling with what was once his strongest and most defining issue — immigration. While the number of people crossing the southern border has fallen significantly, in part due to Trump administration efforts, the widely shared images of aggressive enforcement actions across the country have left even some of his supporters wincing. Other conservatives, still, are unhappy that those efforts have not gone far enough, falling short of the “mass deportations” he promised on the campaign trail.

Again, Trump was very effectively able to communicate dual messages on immigration during the campaign, convincing a lot of marginal voters that he just wanted to deport violent criminals. But the illusion can’t be sustained when Stephen Miller’s deliberately high-profile Gestapo enforcement tactics are the actual policy. And the mainstream press is finally seeing blood in the water.