Election of the Day: Zambia

Today, Zambians will decide if current president Hakainde Hichilema, supported by the center-left coalition UPND (United Party for National Development) coalition, deserves a second five year term. A new national legislature will also be elected: 226 single member district first past the post seats, along with 40 PR seats based on the presidential vote. (Another 11 seats will later be appointed by the President.)

This will be Hichilema’s 5th presidential run; he came in third in 2006 and 2008, and then lost to Edgar Lungu in 2015 in a very close election. He would go on to be one Lungu’s fiercest and most public critics. Lungu was a man richly deserving of fierce critics; his efforts to suppress opposition speech and organizing went far beyond what most recent Zambian presidents do in that regard. In April of 2017, he levelled up his authoritarian tendencies and had Hichilema arrested and charged with treason. (The treason charge appears to have been based on an incident where Hichilema did not modify his own motorcade’s travel pattern to accommodate Lungu’s motorcade, which was widely recognized as an absurd basis for a treason charge.) Over the next four months Hichilema was tortured, starved, isolated and abused. This incident also raised his profile from “ordinary, unremarkable African politician” to a bit of a human rights hero. Luminaries of African politics from Kofi Annan to Olusegun Obasanjo to Kenneth Kuanda (Zambia’s first president) attempted to visit him, only to be turned away. He was ultimately released in August, and his release was greeted with celebrations nationwide. Four years later, he would easily defeat the now unpopular Lungu by over 20%.

Hichilema’s term has generally been viewed as an economic success, in many respects cleaning up Lungu’s mess. He has managed both a tricky debt restructure, and put the country on a strong growth trajectory. Inflation came down from Lungu’s era, but has remained consistently above 10% over his term, which makes it rather difficult for his economic successes to do much for the economic lives of ordinary citizens. Another area of substantial success for him has been expanding and improving access to education. But he’s shown increasingly authoritarian tendencies, especially in the last year or two leading up to today’s election.

Limited polling suggests he’s likely to defeat Brian Mundubile, the official leader of the opposition from 2021-2023 and leader of the Patriotic Front party, by a margin similar to that of his victory of Lungu five years ago. He is part of Lungu’s political faction, which has been in some real leadership chaos since Lungu’s death 14 months ago, but he appears to have more or less consolidated the fractured coalition. His challenge has tried to focus on the degree to which Zambians have not seen the benefit of Hichilema’s alleged economic success, as well as a substantive demand for the government taking a bigger cut of the wealth being generated by Zambia’s current copper boom. Probably a good strategy, but probably not enough. Some recent coverage has talked about a late surge for Mundubile, although there doesn’t appear to be any polling or other concrete evidence to support that account. (Is Zambian polling reliable? I confess I have no idea.)

Apparently the whereabouts and status of former president Lungu’s remains have been something of a campaign issue as well:

A spectre is hanging over the Zambian election campaign in the shape of former President Edgar Lungu.

Despite having died more than a year ago in South Africa, his body remains unburied amid a bitter dispute between President Hakainde Hichilema and the Lungu family that has sharpened political divisions.

This has had a role in energising support for the opposition National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP), particularly in the northern half of the country, traditional strongholds of Lungu’s Patriotic Front (PF), as people see it as offering the best chance to unseat the incumbent.

Polls closed several hours ago, with minimal reports of any kind of issues or irregularities. Zambia is a country that does all the counting before any reporting. The election results are expected to be announced on Monday.