Election of the Weekend IV: Peru

A pretty classic and straightforward Left vs Right presidential runoff today in Peru. Less than 30% of Peruvians voted for Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former right wing president Albert Fujimori, and Roberto Sanchez, formerly a close ally of disgraced and imprisoned former left wing president Pedro Castillo, whose attempted auto-coup was thwarted in 2022. While both candidates are closely tied to figures who presented a clear threat to Peruvian democracy, only one of them is running a campaign designed to reassure voters about that:

Mr. Sánchez spent the campaign’s final weeks pivoting toward the center as he sought to court undecided moderates. Backed by a new team of center-left technical advisers, he has promised to maintain fiscally responsible policies, protect private property and preserve the central bank’s autonomy.

Ms. Fujimori, by contrast, has been catering to her right-wing base as a tough-on-crime candidate and framing Mr. Sánchez as a communist would-be authoritarian who will torpedo private investment. Analysts say she is betting that worries over the economy will naturally win over moderates, while a hard-line stance ensures that her base turns out.

If Mr. Sánchez wins, he will face a hostile, right-wing-dominated Congress without the votes needed to block an impeachment, possibly dooming his presidency to the cycle of gridlock and turnover seen in recent years, said Mauricio Zavaleta, a political scientist at the University of Pittsburgh.

Polling suggests a modest lead for Fujimori, but with a large number of undecideds and a lot of frustration that these are the candidates we’re stuck with. So anything is possible, although a narrow win for Sanchez might not do much to change the country’s current rightward trajectory.