Russia-Ukraine Roundup
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Haven’t done one of these in a while… The toll:
About 352,000 Russian soldiers had died in the war against Ukraine through the end of 2025, according to a new estimate, underscoring the high cost that President Vladimir V. Putin is willing to bear to pursue his battlefield aims.
The figure was released on Saturday — the day of Russia’s annual May 9 parade celebrating victory over Germany in World War II — by the exiled Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona.
The number raises the prospect that about half a million soldiers in total have died on the Russian and Ukrainian sides. In the more than four years since Mr. Putin unleashed his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has become Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II.
But worth noting that Ukraine’s Conscription crisis is also significant:
On the front lines, soldiers known to The Independent in reconnaissance units say they are exhausted, but also know they’re too “useful” to be rotated out. Near Zaporizhzhia, a drone pilot speaks of being in action as a foot soldier for three years non-stop before he moved to drones.
“People view joining the military as a one-way ticket, because they don’t see rotations,” says Oleksandr Merezkho, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee.
“If they knew they would fight for one year and that’s it, and they can have a rest, then they will be more inclined to join the military.
“This issue is psychological, because if you look at the quantity of men, we have enough human resources to continue to fight for 10 years and even more. The key problem is how to manage these resources, and how to create psychological incentives, because if you see the army of draft-dodgers, you won’t want to fight yourself.”
Robots aren’t enough, and Russian propaganda is targeting Ukrainian conscription efforts. That said, some concerns on Russia’s home front:
President Vladimir V. Putin and his security services kept a lid on public dissent even as he invaded a neighboring country, sent hundreds of thousands of soldiers to their deaths and drastically raised taxes to pay for it all.
Then, they moved to throttle popular apps and intermittently cut off the internet. Suddenly, many Russians found their voice.
Ordinary citizens, politicians and even reality television stars have criticized the restrictions. By speaking out, they have breathed a whiff of life into the Russian political system, which no longer allows for genuine opposition but leaves a little room around the edges for dissenting views.
Instagram influencers who usually are apolitical are banging the drum for digital rights. Politicians from the “systemic opposition” — the Potemkin factions that the Kremlin allows in Parliament to oppose the ruling United Russia party but still almost always vote with it — have reproached the government for restricting Telegram, the country’s most widely used chatting app.
However, there’s still little reason to believe that Russia will be forced by economic factors to end the war.
Other links:
- Ukraine’s experience with drone production and innovation pays off… although it’s also taxing Ukrainian state capacity.
- It is not at all clear that maneuver can be restored to the battlefield, although the Russians are going to try.
- Other ideas for improving the Ukrainian manpower situation.
- What a crappy Victory Day parade…
I am loathe to make predictions about this conflict, but the optimist in me thinks that we may be in the last year of the war. Despite Ukrainian conscription issues there’s just not all that much evidence that Russia can crack the front lines in any meaningful way. Obviously there’s a lot going on in European (not to mention American) politics that can affect the balance, but I get the sense that both Moscow and Kyiv are starting to think seriously about what comes after the war.
Photo Credit: By Ukrainian Air Force – https://x.com/KpsZSU/status/1991107089016521204, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=178784582