What Do We Know?

An agreement on a ceasefire in Donald Trump’s war on Iran was allegedly reached last night. The good part was that Trump could step back from his maximalist war crime threats. The bad part is that nobody seems to have any idea what is in the agreement.

Iran put forth ten points that were pretty much the same ten points they’ve been offering all along, plus, in Farsi but not English, that they would keep their right to enrich uranium. Serious negotiating teams include skilled interpreters and translators and compare the statements before they are made public. It appears that the Witkoff and Kushner clown show is still doing the negotiating, so I guess this is not surprising.

In any case, Trump this morning presented something entirely different.

Trump’s posts lately have seemed not entirely Trumpian in wording. Adding this to his absence from public eye last week and his addled press conference suggests that he is not entirely in charge. But who would be?

His performance at the press conference was truly disturbing. He could barely read the prepared statement, which went on far too long. He displayed his erotic fascination with physical injury, particularly of the rescued airman, but also of snipers shooting Iranian protesters. Or was that second at another appearance? It hardly matters.

What was most disturbing, though, was his internal focus. Usually, he tosses out bits and scraps of red meat to see who’s biting. He went through the words of that activity but seemed unable to process any input and rather kept to his internal understanding of the situation. When reporters intruded on that internality, he was mildly irritated for a few seconds, but quickly retreated to his fantasies.

To some degree, he has always depended on his constructs of the world, but this time he was oblivious of the external cues he has used to charm his audience. His speech last week had the same internality, but there was no external stimulus.

Trump is experiencing something new: He is being told that he can’t do something he wants to, and nobody is picking up his mess. He is reacting, day by day. People around him are trying to influence him both privately and publicly, while polishing their images for after he goes.

It’s worth considering who within the White House is influencing him on the war. Russell Vought has his attacks on the bureaucracy, getting a NASA cut in the news even as four astronauts fly around the moon. Stephen Miller tests his new mouthpiece, Markwayne Mullin, in threatening to tank the airlines. Hegseth certainly loves blood and war crimes as much as Trump does, but I’m not sure he’s smart enough to manipulate Trump’s responses to the war, which, annoyingly, have to include what the Iranians are doing. Bibi Netanyahu clearly is using all the influence he can, as is Lindsay Graham, but neither is actually at Trump’s side. Perhaps the blood and war crimes are enough to keep Trump shamblilng through it.

This is a vibe-based analysis, but vibes are all we have. The Iranian statement of “agreement” has been unacceptable  to the US, as has the US statement been to the Iranians. And Israel keeps bombing Lebanon.