Election of the weekend: Italy

I don’t have time to write up a post, but I thought there might be some interest in discussing the constitutional referendum Italy is about to vote on.

Italy will hold a constitutional referendum on 22-23 March, following the procedure established for approbative referendums of constitutional revisions under article 138, over a controversial reform of the justice system that aims to amend Title II and IV of Part II of the Constitution. It is only the fifth constitutional referendum in the history of the Italian Republic. One of the key provisions of the reform is the separation of careers for judges and prosecutors, meaning they would no longer be able to switch between the two roles and must choose which to follow (although some have claimed this is a front for the other, more controversial changes).

The proposal from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government comes with significant opposition from the national association of magistrates (ANM) and the center-left opposition. These players claim the reform will weaken the judiciary, making it susceptible to political pressure, and pave the way for increased government control over those who investigate crimes. For example, Elly Schlein, leader of the Democratic Party (PD), stated the reform  “serves this government to have free rein and put itself above the laws and the constitution,” and Giuseppe Conte, leader of the (arguably) center-left Movimento 5 Stelle, said: “They want full powers, and we will oppose them at all costs.”

The right wing, instead, frequently frames the judiciary as being excessively left-wing and pursuing politically motivated rulings against the government’s agenda, a sentiment which, as we will explore, has extremely deep roots in Italian political history.

Meloni is leading one of the country’s most stable governments in years, and her popularity remains higher than when she took office. However, the referendum is a high-stakes bet for the government that could backfire: referendums in Italy can easily morph into votes of confidence in the government, and this one is no different.

Polling suggests this is a real tossup. Yes had a small and narrowing lead, but it may have narrowed into nothing by the end of the polling window, “No” had a less than 1% lead. (Italy has a 2 week no polls rule just prior to elections.)