Dispatches from the redistricting wars: Utah

Those of you following the redistricting wars in in 2025-2026 may have noticed that the Democrats are projected to pick up a seat in Utah, going from 4-0 to 3-1 R, despite having no institutional power in that state. The story starts in 2018, when a gerrymandering ban, Proposition 4, was passed by the voters by a very slim margin, over the vociferous objections of Utah Republicans. In 2020, Utah passed Senate bill 200, which they pitched as a compromise between Prop 4 and the preferences of the legislature, but which, in effect, nullified the proposition. Utah proceeded to gerrymander their four congressional seats to ensure SLC and its inner suburbs were split up among the four districts. A number of groups led by the League of Women’s Voters sued on the grounds that under Utah law, the legislature isn’t supposed to simply nullify citizen-passed legislation. In 2024, the Supreme Court of Utah agreed, unanimously (that’s five Republicans, three of whom appointed by the current governor, who has been leading the fight to re-gerrymander Utah) ruled Prop 200 unconstitutional, and reinstated Prop 4 as written, and ordered the Utah legislature to produce a legislative map compliant with the law. After a bit of back and forth (the legislature lamely attempted a “what if we just gerrymandered 5% less?” type map that was also rejected) a map that give SLC a solidly Democratic seat will be on the books for 2026.

But Republicans weren’t ready to give up. There was the signature gathering effort in the fall to get a repeal of Prop 4 on the 2026 ballot, which, if passed, would make whoever wins the SLC seat in 2026 a one term congressperson. Republicans spent millions on this, and got a full throated endorsement of the effort from President Trump. The requisite number of signatures were gathered, and the proposition was on track to make the ballot. However! Utah has a period of roughly three months where no new signatures may be submitted, but voters can remove their signature from the initiative. If enough people remove their signatures, the ballot proposition will not move on to the voters. Furthermore, the threshold for signatures isn’t a raw, statewide number. A ballot proposition now needs valid signatures equal to 8% of the votes cast in the last presidential election in that district in at least 26 of the 29 senate districts. So, anti-gerrymandering reformers had a window to get this off the ballot. The signature gathering effort only got to 26, and SD 15, a D-leaning district whose Republicans are reputed to be of the more moderate variety covering the southern suburbs of SLC, was targeted as the most friendly territory for getting a sufficient number of signature removals. In the middle of the process, the legislature changed the rules, such that pre-paid envelopes for submitting the signature removal form were not permissible. (A stamp is a 70 cent bribe, you see.) This cancelled hundreds of signature removals, sending anti-gerrymandering activists scrambling back to those people to fill out the form again and submit it themselves, in person or by mail.

Well, as of this morning, with almost a month left to go, they hit their number. With the most recent updates about removals, SD 15 valid signatures are below the threshold and repealing Prop 4 will not be on the November ballot. Utah Republicans aren’t done fighting this, but their key mistake was nominating insufficiently hackish judges for their Supreme Court. Ironically, the provisions that undid the repeal effort, the 26/29 SD threshold and the signature removal window, were provisions enacted in the 2010’s designed to undermine and weaken direct democracy, as they realized the Utah voters, while seemingly deeply committed to electing Republican majorities, are less enthusiastic about every aspect of Republican rule and would prefer the ability to push back once in a while. So, in a sense, this is a bit of a “hoisted on their own petard” outcome for Utah Republicans. As it stands SLC will get to pick their own Representative in an urban, D+20something district, and while Republicans may yet find a way to change that situation, in the medium term, their clearest path to doing so is no longer on the table.

Utah Governor Spencer Cox has gotten some good press about being a different kind of Republican in the Trump era — kind, decent, respectful, and in a compromising spirit toward his political opponents. When the camera’s rolling he plays this role well, and while that’s not nothing, but his enthusiastic efforts to nullify the will of the voters, and deny those Utah Democrats he purports to have deep respect for the opportunity for fair representation since coming into office in 2020 throw some cold water on this particular branding exercise.