Wedges

Donald Trump’s coalition contains many possible points of conflict and fracture. Cracks are beginning to show. Possible break points can be wedged by the opposition. It would be good for a unified Democratic opposition to strategize in the way I am doing in this post, and maybe they are! That strategizing might well be done quietly. But we are the opposition, too, so perhaps we can begin to use these wedges. Trump’s coalition is resilient because many of its members’ objectives overlap, although there are different reasons for those objectives. Additionally, not all the objectives are compatible.

War in Iran

“Donald the Dove” is a trope that many of his supporters fell for and feel strongly about. Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, and Marjory Taylor Greene are vocally opposing involvement in Israel’s war on Iran. Others in the coalition, like the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, have long wanted a war against Iran. Both sides take absolutist positions, so whatever decision Trump manages to come up with will irritate some of his coalition.

A few Republicans also seem to have reservations about the Constitutional delegation of the power to wage war to Congress. This is one of the few Republican twitches of responsibility in Congress under Trump.

Trump himself is having difficulty making a decision. “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” gave way in 24 hours to “look what nice flagpoles I am having installed at the White House.” Judah Grunstein posted a thread that I think describes Trump’s dilemma nicely.

Immigration

Last week, Trump recognized that businesses are complaining that Mass Deportations Now are hurting them and called off ICE raids on some of their targets. This week, those restrictions were lifted. Clearly a struggle is in progress between the MDN faction and the business faction.

That conflict has been obvious all along. We depend on immigrants, many of them undocumented, for growing and harvesting our food, for preparing that food, for care of elders and children, and many other services, including law enforcement. It looks like Stephen Miller (MDN) won this round, but there will be more.

Miller vs. Vought

This is an out-and-out power struggle. Miller and Russell Vought share some objectives, but not others. Miller wants to deport millions. Vought is carrying out the Project 2025 agenda. For now, they are staying in their lanes, but if either feels he is losing Trump’s ear, they are likely to turn on each other.

ICE is running up against financial limits. The proposed Republican budget would remedy this with billions of dollars. Vought’s project is to shrink the government. Perhaps Project 2025 allows for law enforcement and defense to grow. Perhaps not. Project 2025 is self-contradictory in its layoffs large numbers of government workers, but wanting to use that government for its ends. Elon Musk was doing Vought’s work too publicly, and he’s ostensibly been moved out of the government, although his (Vought’s?) operatives remain in place.

Bringing on the Apocalypse

There are two major camps in the Trump coalition who want to bring on the apocalypse: evangelicals who look to their interpretation of the Bible, and Silicon Valley boys who look to AI. Both believe that a cataclysmic event will end the world as we know it. For the evangelicals, that is a war in the Middle East, and for Silicon Valley, it is machines that are smarter than we are. Both see their chosen outcome as a blessing for some, nightmare for others.

Within the camps, there are denominations with their own expectations around their apocalypse, so there are plenty of potential wedge points. I favor the wedge between all of them and reality, but that has been less effective than I would like so far.

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Many of Trump’s whims are self-contradictory, sort of internal wedge points.

Some of these will self-destruct. Others may attract supporters from among the coalition and grow. It’s our job to amplify the latter.

A strength that the factions possess is that some of their preferences interweave. Thus, the apocalyptic evangelicals are likely to side with those who want war against Iran, in their hopes that the war will bring their end times. But it can work the other way too. Miller’s hatred of immigrants makes life difficult for Silicon Valley employers.

Wedging isn’t one weird trick, but rather an incremental chipping away.

Yes, I know you would like for the elected Democrats to spearhead this. But we, too, are Democrats in opposition to a would-be autocrat. So let’s do what we can to pound those wedges.