Begun, these Bourbon Wars Have?

An update on the future of American bourbon under the Trump administration:

Trump, inaugurated Jan. 20 for his second four-year term, said Monday that he plans to introduce a broad range of new tariffs, though he has not yet decided on specifics. But if the trade climate doesn’t shift soon, bourbon makers could be looking at twice the hit: The European Union is set to implement 50% tariffs on American whiskey in March if disputes over steel and aluminum are not resolved. Thirty-eight states export American whiskey: Tennessee, home to Brown-Forman’s Jack Daniel’s, exports the most, while Kentucky, home to most major bourbon brands, ranks second. A large chunk of those sales go overseas — and 50% of overseas sales go to the European Union…

…On Jan. 20, Trump’s Inauguration Day, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he told the liquor control board to remove all U.S. spirits from stores if tariffs are imposed. “I’ve sent a direction to the LCBO that if these tariffs come to clear off every bit of U.S. alcohol off the shelves. Let’s start promoting more Ontario-made wines, and the vodkas, the spirits. That’s what we need to do,” he said. “We are the largest purchaser of alcohol in the entire world. They will feel the pain. I will make sure I communicate this to our other premiers that they should be following suit.”

Any of those changes could have massive implications not just on large Kentucky spirits companies, but small ones too. Swonger said the USDA helps promote American whiskey overseas and the Distilled Spirits Council helps craft distilleries like the James E. Pepper Distillery in Lexington access foreign markets. After tariffs imposed during Trump’s first presidency, James E. Pepper owner Amir Peay had to scrap plans to ramp up distribution in Europe. Peay declined to be interviewed for this article. “There are craft distilleries sprinkled all around the U.S., including in Kentucky, and many of those are excited about exporting their brands,” Swonger said. “When the tariffs were imposed, they just stopped. And jobs were impacted as well.”

I’ll add that the details of trade negotiations are devilishly difficult to work out and require the input of foreign service officers and civil service officers from State, Treasury, Commerce, and other departments… just the kind of competent, professional bureaucracy that the Trump administration is planning to excuse from service. Trump is incapable of understanding the tools he needs to accomplish his own ends.