Kamala Harris was a good candidate who ran a very good campaign in a fiercely anti-incumbent environment
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I know data and logic can never stop a pundit’s fallacy, and “the operation was a success but the patient died” is of no consolation at this point, but the idea that the problem last night was the result of marginal messaging choices is completely delusional:
My initial take on Trump's win: https://t.co/OagyPxsFFg
His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors — not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups.
The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses.
1/2 pic.twitter.com/VyNMdFAKIQ— John Sides (@johnmsides) November 6, 2024
This is a nationwide shift to the right and against the presidential in-party, and the shift was notably less pronounced in the contested battleground states, which is the opposite of what you would expect if Harris ran a poor campaign. There is no such thing as a flawless campaign but Harris had much higher net approval ratings than Biden, correctly identified the most competitive states, improved Democratic margins there, and was notably more competitive than other incumbent parties have done since COVID inflation (or than Trudeau is looking). This is the bottom line to a very useful thread laying out the election results across the world since March 2022:
Trump benefitted from all three trends – he's running against the incumbent, as leader of the only opposition, and he's seen as radical/anti-system— Rob Ford (@robfordmancs) November 6, 2024
I suppose it’s theoretically possible that every major incumbent party to face re-election since spring 2022 has happened to nominate a bad candidate with bad campaign messaging, but I don’t think it’s very plausible. This was not about campaign strategy or tactics, or the vice presidential choice.
And I will assume that the person MSNBC saying that Biden shouldn’t have stepped down will be an aberration, but…come on. Given his net approval ratings he might have lost Virginia and New Jersey, and given the Republicans at least two more Senate seats. I don’t have a solution to how to turn around the nation’s rightward shift, but the quality of the Democratic presidential nominee was not the issue.