Trump Gets Frustrated
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Trump announced today that he would authorize a number of American weapons to be sent to the battlefield, including as many as 17 Patriot missile batteries, which will dramatically bolster Ukraine’s ability to shoot down incoming Russian missiles and drones (and were long sought by Zelensky). Seventeen would be a tall order; so far, the United States has provided two such batteries in three years of war. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, after meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon today, told reporters that Germany would engage in talks with the United States to purchase two Patriot missile batteries to pass on to Ukraine. But Ukraine would likely not receive the systems for months, Pistorius said.
The measures announced today will likely not alter the overall trajectory of the war, and they fall short of what some hoped Trump would authorize. But they could blunt Russia’s momentum in the conflict and, in turn, its desire to prolong the war. The moves also offered reassurances to Ukraine and Europe that Washington could still be a partner in their fight; NATO allies will finance the purchase of the American-made weapons, Trump said while sitting next to the alliance’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, in the Oval Office. “It’s not my war, and I’m trying to get you out of it. We want to see an end to it,” Trump said to Rutte. “I’m disappointed in President Putin because I thought we would have had a deal two months ago, but it doesn’t seem to get there.” Axios reported that Trump might also send some offensive, long-range weapons to Ukraine, but the president made no mention of that today.
Predictably, undercutting Ukraine’s capacity to fight has not produced peace. Ukrainian flexibility on cease-fire terms, which the folks at Quincy and the Pop Realist community relentlessly assured us would bring about peace, have been met with an escalation of Russian demands. To be sure, the display of flexibility was still necessary- otherwise we likely wouldn’t be seeing any movement from Trump- but nevertheless for a certain segment of the foreign policy commentariat this entire war has been an exercise in taking Russia neither seriously nor literally. The thing that brings about peace- likely an unsatisfactory peace, but one that can still establish Ukrainian sovereignty and protect Ukrainian democracy- will be the force of Ukrainian arms, supported by the US and European defense industrial bases. The nice thing to see here is the indication that Trump is a little bit worried about being the Guy Who Lost Kyiv; he saw what happened to Biden after Kabul and may have internalized that lesson.