Harris’s surge and the RFK effect
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The top line results from the new Marquette Law School poll (A+ rating in NYT curated average):
Head to head among likely voters:
Harris 53 Trump 47 (Harris +6)
Among likely voters in a full field:
Harris 50 Trump 42 (Harris +8) Kennedy 6 Stein (Green) 1 Oliver (Libertarian) 1 Cornel West (LOL) 0
We now have a number of polls that taken together suggest strongly that RFK hurts Trump more than Harris. This makes sense intuitively: RFK is a deeply weird conspiracy addled anti-vax wealthy failson playboy celebrity, very much like someone else in the race. BTW RFK has enough money and organization to at least have managed to get on the ballot pretty much everywhere, while at the moment Cornel West, who in theory would be more attractive than RFK to the complete idiot left vote, is on the ballot in five states and has no money.
Note that this poll was taken between one and two weeks ago, and that the week since it ended has been a PR boon for Harris-Walz and an equally striking PR nightmare for Trump-Vance.
On one level, what’s going on here is that the Ariana Grande voters didn’t want to vote for either Biden or Trump, and now they have a genuine alternative, with predictable results:
A large majority of Democrats are satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 87% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee, 10% very or somewhat dissatisfied, and 3% who say they don’t know. The poll was completed before Harris secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates.
A substantial majority of all registered voters, 80%, say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 13% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 87% say Biden should have withdrawn.
Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 43% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 11% say they don’t know.
A long way to go of course, but the trend is excellent and strengthening.