Dems break Republican supermajority in Iowa
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Republicans are straining to make congressional elections for good reason:
Iowa Democrat Catelin Drey won a major upset on Tuesday night, flipping a deep-red seat in the state Senate and breaking the GOP’s supermajority in the chamber.
Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch by a wide 55-45 margin in a district Donald Trump carried by 11 points last year.
It’s the second conservative district that Iowa Republicans have lost in the legislature this year, and the results will further buoy Democratic hopes for similar victories in contests for governor and the U.S. Senate in 2026.
The most immediate impact will be felt right away. Drey’s defeat of Republican Christopher Prosch, following a shock win by Democrat Mike Zimmer in January, chisels the GOP’s advantage in the Iowa Senate down to 33-17.
Crucially, that means Gov. Kim Reynolds will no longer be able to rely solely on the support of fellow Republicans to confirm her picks for judgeships and state cabinet posts, since nominees must be confirmed by two-thirds of the Senate.
But the outcome may say even more about the broader political environment in Iowa. In three prior special elections in the Hawkeye State this year (including Zimmer’s), Democrats have run far ahead of last year’s presidential results.
This is the worst possible time for complacency, and the negative effects of midterm gerrymandering will be real. But between the usual out-party advantage, the general sentiment against incumbent parties, and Trump’s determination to do extremely unpopular things that can’t be easily bullshitted away, the electoral context should be very favorable for Democrats in the next 18 months. It’s an opportunity that needs to be realized.