The folks at 1945 asked for my thoughts regarding the indictments, and especially whether the indictments would work to help or hinder Donald Trump’s 2024 election bid. Said thoughts:
The bigger problem is that Trump leads a minority coalition in American politics that prevailed in 2016 because of quirks in the electoral system. In order to defeat an incumbent President Biden in 2024, Trump needs to expand his electoral base; simply making that base more intense and upset doesn’t necessarily help him. There is no indication whatsoever that an indictment will convince undecided voters to favor Trump, or that it will convince Biden supporters to switch sides. Indeed, the indictment may simply add to the air of criminality that has followed Trump for most of his career, first as a real estate financier, then as a reality television star, and then as President. And let there be no doubt; the great many Americans who intensely dislike Donald Trump and would never consider casting a vote for him as President seems awfully happy that he’s under indictment.
I do think that if the indictments manage to take Trump out of the picture entirely, they could work to help Desantis by allowing him to claim the mantle of Trump without actually defeating Trump at the convention. But we’re way off from that and it’s hard to say how any of it will work out at this point.