On Expectations Management

John Sides brings some modeling:

Since 1994 the party controlling the Presidency has tended to suffer catastrophic midterm results, with the two biggest exceptions being 1998 (where the GOP shot itself in the foot impeaching Clinton) and 2002 (when the GOP was running hard on invading Iraq). This tends to play out a little bit different in the Senate because of seat distribution, but 40-45 seats lost in the House is very much in line with what we have come to expect. Two weeks out it’s still possible that the GOP will see a victory of that magnitude, but a narrower win looks a lot more likely, which is pretty goddamn surprising given the state of inflation and Biden’s mediocre approval rating. Now, given the nature of the modern GOP this isn’t exactly reassuring; one would hope that fascists would do rather worse irrespective of inflation. Nevertheless, it’s important to appreciate the headwinds that the Dems are facing. It also seems to me that a Democratic defeat in the House would offer a good excuse to pursue a younger leadership team.