Game 5 etc. open thread

Elimination day in a rare playoff appearance for my baseball team, so I will likely be a wreck for the next 3ish hours.

The Tigers are actually favored on the road although the Mariners have a better offense. This is partly because the Tigers are starting the AL’s best pitcher. But part of it is that the Mariners are starting their forth best starter, who was below-average this year, rather than their best available starter Logan Gilbert. As Joe Sheehan first-guessed in his newsletter, in which he otherwise liked Seattle:

I can’t say I like Dan Wilson getting cute with his starting rotation, leading with George Kirby and Luis Castillo while holding Logan Gilbert back for Game Three, ensuring his ace gets just one start in the series. I am on a short list of the world’s biggest George Kirby fans, and I wouldn’t have made this move. It seems at least partially motivated by single-season home/road splits; both Castillo and Kirby were much better at T-Mobile than on the road by ERA, though once you look at FIP, most of the difference disappears. No manager should be setting his rotation based on home/road splits, and it does make me wonder whether we’re about to find out Dan Wilson is in over his head. If he is, facing A.J. Hinch, a very good tactician, isn’t going to help matters.

Hopefully, this won’t blow up on him! Discuss this or anything else.

…UPDATE:

I HAVE ALWAYS THE SUPPORTED DAN WILSON'S DECISION TO SET UP THE ROTATION SO GEORGE KIRBY STARTS GAME 5

[image or embed]— Scott Lemieux (@lemieuxlgm.bsky.social) Oct 10, 2025 at 6:28 PM