College Football Week 7 Thread

First of all, Penn State losing to UCLA is hilarious. Oregon crushed their will to exist. It’s great. Texas also sucks–Arch Manning continues to be the first NCAA player with more ads than completions in a game. Meanwhile, maybe I finally believe in a Mario Cristobal coached team since Miami looks pretty damn good.

This is a very good week of games, so let’s have some fun.

Top 10 games of the week, based on the Athletic’s rankings of schools from 1-136 and in order of the time in which they start.

1. #7 Alabama at #11 Missouri (+3.5), 12, ABC. Noon is going to be a hell of a time slot for games this week. This wasn’t really seen as a first rate matchup when the season started, but Missouri has been really good. It’s a bit hard to know what to make of Alabama’s loss to Florida State now, but beating Georgia, we can say it was a fluke. The thing that makes me hesitate about Missouri really challenging them is that this is their first tough game, which is a hard place to be this deep in the season while playing in the SEC. They had a nice win against Kansas and something of a tight win against South Carolina, but otherwise have played garbage. The schedule gets a lot harder from here and I don’t yet believe in Missouri, so I take Bama by more than a field goal in Columbia.
2. #2 Ohio State at #20 Illinois (+14.5), 12, FOX. Illinois is a decent program, but I can’t get what Indiana did to them out of my head. Ohio State is just head and shoulders better and finally proved it could put up big points last week too. So I take Ohio State by more than 2 TDs, even though it’s on the road. These are just different classes of football teams.
3. #8 Indiana at #3 Oregon (-7.5), 3:30, CBS. The game of the week here. Indiana has a really good team, as the aforementioned Illinois game showed. But going to Eugene is a whole other thing, especially after what the Ducks showed in State College two weeks ago. Indiana struggled to score much against Iowa two weeks ago and Oregon’s defense has a lot of future NFL players on it. Indiana does lead the nation in rushing and Oregon hasn’t always been stout against the run, but then they figured that out and shut down the Penn State running game. So I think the Ducks win this in a solid victory, by at least a couple of TDs. Not that I am biased or anything….And were I an actual betting man, I would never wager on my Ducks under any circumstances.
4. #39 Texas vs. #4 Oklahoma (+1.5), 3:30, ABC. This is a brutal game to pick. Texas is obviously not that good. But I was all ready to pick Texas due to Oklahoma’s star QB and leader John Mateer being out. But now he is evidently going to play. The Red River Shootout is also a game where anything can happen on a neutral field with two rabid fanbases. Texas is playing for its season. Oklahoma is trying to hang in the playoff race until Mateer is healthy. In real life, I wouldn’t touch this game with a ten foot pole. For the sake of this blog though, I think an Oklahoma team with even a hobbled Mateer will beat the demoralized Longhorns and if Mateer plays, I expect the rest of the team to really be inspired by that. So I reluctantly pick the Sooners to cover that spread.
5. #44 Florida at #6 Texas A&M (-7.5), 7, ESPN. Florida is actually a pretty good team, but they aren’t as good as the gauntlet of their opponents. This line is relatively close because Florida beat Texas last week, but what if Texas just kind of sucks (never mind that I am picking them to upset a damaged Oklahoma team)? Can they keep up the momentum at College Station? I find that questionable and think this is an easy call for A&M by more than a TD.
6. #15 Michigan at #27 USC (-2.5), 7:30, NBC. As a friend of mine put last week when USC was losing, the media always wants USC to be good but they just never are. And that’s true this year too. I take Michigan to cover the spread against the Trojans.
7. #10 Georgia at #32 Auburn (+3.5), 7:30, ABC. Auburn is not a bad team at all, but they’ve suffered two very close losses on the road the last two weeks to Oklahoma and Texas A&M. No shame there, but how do they respond with yet another juggernaut coming to Auburn. This is a close drive for a lot of Georgia fans too so there will likely be plenty of Bulldog fans in the house. Georgia is battle-hardened, having lost to Alabama but with a big win over Tennessee. When a team loses two tough games like that, it can be hard to keep up the pride and momentum. It can be done, as Florida showed last week against Texas, but if I have to bet on it, I will take Georgia -3.5.
8. #37 Kansas at #9 Texas Tech (-14.5), 7:30, FOX. Kansas is certainly an alright team, but I’ve really come to believe in Texas Tech. Bought team or not, they have gelled and that takes excellent coaching as well as talent. No one has even come close to the Red Raiders yet, Kansas has been somewhat up and down, and this is in a hungry Lubbock. So yeah, I think Tech blows them out by more than this spread.
9. #36 South Carolina at #13 LSU (-9.5), 7:45, SEC. A tough line here. LSU is the better team and South Carolina has been a touch disappointing this year, but that’s a fairly sizable spread. They had a nice win against Kentucky last week, but the Wildcats might be the worst team in the SEC this year and the Gamecocks were obliterated by Vanderbilt before a closer loss at Missouri. In any case, there’s not much evidence they can hang with LSU so while I am hesitant about that line, I will take LSU by 10 or more.
10. #28 Arizona State at #29 Utah (-5.5), 10:15, ESPN. A sneaky very good game between probably the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the Big 12 (depending on how you feel about Iowa State and BYU and with Texas Tech clearly the best). The thing that makes me nervous about ASU is that they keep sneaking out close wins. That’s a sign of a well-coached team and Kenny Dillingham is a major up and comer. But Utah is also always a well coached team under Kyle Whittingham and the advanced stats suggest Utah is an underrated program this year. I believe they are as well. Even more, ASU QB Sam Leavitt is doubtful so they will be starting some backup. I will take Utah by a touchdown. Might have even with Leavitt, no question without him.

I was 5-5 last week against the spread, making me 33-31 on the season. Just flip the coin.