What the GOP has become

My friend Steve has an interesting, meaning terrifying, analysis of what the 2022 Senate Republican primaries tell us about where the Party now is:

2022 will have six races where the GOP is incumbent and the incumbent is retiring. Those races are a fair indication of where the party is and where it’s heading. They are obviously winnable, and probably most are as good as won. The national party, such as it is, is certainly invested in these seats.

NC: Trump-endorsed Rep. Ted Budd is the almost certain winner over former governor Pat McCrory, the slightly more mainstream candidate. McCrory has plenty of Trumpianness about him, but he objected to 1/6 and related coup activities, so out he goes.

Budd is pure MAGA, claims 2020 was stolen, voted not to certify the “contested” EVs.

Ohio: JD Vance. Probably only pretending to be a lunatic, but definitely not pretending to be an authoritarian who wants to use the state to crush his enemies. Has stated 2020 was stolen. A certain vote for anything Trumpian in the 2024 election that’s an actual thing. (I.e., if there are any more than a couple of GOP senators on the Trumpian side of a question, he is certain to be one of them.)

Believes that Joe Biden is intentionally murdering MAGA voters by letting fentanyl in. This is not enough to earn him lunatic status today.

Oklahoma: Sen. Snowball retiring. No Trump endorsement yet. Appears to be a 4-way race. Tentative leader is Rep. Markwayne Mullin. His wikipedia features a section entitled “Mixed Martial Arts Record.” Witnessed Ashli Babbitt’s shooting, said it was justified. That could be a problem. Mitigating that, he signed the amicus brief supporting Texas’s case that Pennsylvania had violated Texas’s rights by voting for Biden. Also voted not to certify PA.

Other candidates in prediction market order:

Former OK House Speaker T. W. Shannon. Endorsed by Sarah Palin, Ted Cruz, and Mark Levin. Solid combo there. Headed Oklahoma Blacks for Trump. Can’t immediately find where he stands on 2020 but one can certainly guess.

Former Trump chief of staff of the US National Security Council Alex Gray. Worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Legendarily corrupt Trump EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt.

All Trumpers, all certain votes for any 2024 corruption.

Pennsylvania: March of the lunatics, plus unknown hedge fund dude.

Mehmet Oz. TV’s Dr. Oz. Hustler of quackery. Trump-endorsed, current favorite. Whatever he was in TV days, he is now core MAGA.

David McCormick: Hedge fund dude, regrets 1/6, married to Dina Powell. *Relatively* sane, more Bush than Trump.

Kathy Barnette: Whoa. Authentically fringe. Obama was a Kenyan Muslim and so forth. Drawing fire from MAGAland, including Hannity. Still, she’s got a real future, and an outside chance tomorrow.

Missouri: 3-way parade of horribles, no Trump endorsement yet, but the worst sub-Trumps are for Greitens.

Eric Greitens: Sexual terrorist, former governor. Has Flynn, Gorka, Trump Jr., Rudy, Kerik, Guilfoyle, Prager. Absolute gold, this guy.

Rep. Vicky Hartzler: has Michele Bachmann, Josh Hawley, Eric Metaxas. The dark fetid corners of MAGA have some weird infighting. Voted to overturn 2020 in the House.

Missouri AG Eric Schmitt: has Cruz, Dana Loesch, Peter Thiel, and the toilet guy former AG, Whittaker. Supported lawsuits protesting 2020.


Alabama: Trump dumped Mo Brooks, who is campaigning on a pro 1/6 platform, for saying yeah they stole 2020 but maybe we need to move on now. Strong favorite is now attorney Katie Britt, who supports claims of 2020 fraud. Another reliable 2024 vote.

So it is very likely that all six go to Trumpers, with PA the only realistic possibility to not do so.

Then there are the currently D seats in purple states.

Georgia: It will be Herschel Walker, who will actually stand out as an absurd candidate.

Arizona: Probably Blake Masters, a Peter Thiel employee. A Curtis Yarvin (racist neoreactionary) fan. Had measured praise for the Unabomber manifesto. Thinks 2020 was stolen.

Nevada: will be Adam Laxalt, grandson of Reagan insider Paul Laxalt. Son (only recently acknowledged) of former Senator Pete Domenici who had an affair with Paul’s daughter. Chair of Trump 2020 Nevada campaign, worked to not count Clark County early votes. Claimed large scale fraud, worked to overturn Nevada, obviously will do the same in 2024.

New Hampshire: 2-way. NH Senate president Chuck Morse, retired Brigadier General Donald Bolduc. Bolduc is pure MAGA, Stop The Steal. Endorsed by Flynn. Morse has been slightly cagier, simply won’t say who won 2020.

The possible GOP incumbents who could maybe lose but probably won’t are human sack of Jello Marco Rubio, and Wisconsin’s deranged Ron Johnson.

Anyway, all that is why people are slightly concerned that a GOP congressional majority is a threat to future fair elections. If you were wondering.

McConnell is 80 years old. He can probably survive a power challenge or two but I would definitely not bet on him being Leader past 2024. Next one up is going to be more uh, “populist.”

Something I honestly don’t get at all are people who believe DeSantis is going to challenge Trump for the presidential nomination, and that he’s going to win. Neither of those beliefs make the slightest bit of sense to me.

It’s true that “the base” created Trump to an even greater extent than Trump created the base, but once Dr. Frankenstein’s monster started ambling about the exact genesis of the creative process was no longer the most pressing question of the moment, practically speaking.

For the moment, Trump and the base are symbiotically locked together, and, short of some massive medical crisis or the unleashing and ultimate success of Merrick Garland’s up until now totally invisible prosecution strategy (you can tell it’s a great strategy because it’s so invisible), the 2024 election will be about one question and one question only. And that question won’t have anything to do with Ron DeSantis.