Bill Belichick, who was once at the cutting edge of “aggressive” 4th down calls that are really playing the percentages, may have cost himself a win he desperately wanted with a deeply strange decision that ended the game:
—> TB (19) @ NE (17) <—
NE has 4th & 3 at the TB 37
Recommendation (MEDIUM): 👉 Go for it (+2.6 WP)
Actual play: 👟🏈 N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-J.Bailey. pic.twitter.com/Wf2KNMVO67— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 4, 2021
The percentages here aren’t so stark as to make the decision indefensible in the abstract depending on the particular context. But given that 1)it was pouring rain, 2)the kicker is a mediocre 37-year-old journeyman who was injured and 3)even if you make the kick you’re leaving Tom Brady almost a minute needing only a FG for the win…I really don’t get it. Yeah, the Pats QB is a rookie, but he had played well and if you have that little confidence in him you might as well pack it in right now. I don’t get it, and you have to wonder if as he pushes 70 the greatest coach in NFL history is finally losing something on his fastball.
Look, Bill's built his career over teams kicking field goals and handing the ball back to Brady, and he's not about to change things up now— (((DJAnyReason))) (@DJAnyReason) October 4, 2021